It’s 2020 and you’re in the future

It’s finally the 2020s. After 20 years of not being able to refer to the decade we’re in, we’re all finally free—in the clear for the next 80 years until 2100, at which point I assume AGI will have figured out what to call the two decades between 2100 and 2120. 

We now live in the 20s! It’s exciting. “The twenties” is super legit-sounding, and it’s so old school. The 40s are old. The 30s even more so. But nothing is older school than the Roaring 20s.

We’re now in charge of making this a cool decade so when people 100 years from now are thinking about how incredibly old-timey the 2020s were, it’s old-timey in a cool appealing way and not a boring shitty way.

It’s also weird that to us, the 2020s sounds like such a rad futuristic decade—and that’s how the 1920s seemed to people 100 years ago today. They were all used to the 19-teens, and suddenly they were like, “whoa cool we’re in the twenties!” Then they got upset thinking about how much farther along in life their 1910 self thought they’d be by 1920.

In any case, it’s a perfect time for one of those “shit we’re old” posts.

So here are some New Years 2020 time facts:

When World War 2 started, the Civil War felt as far away to Americans as WW2 feels to us now.

Speaking of World War 2, the world wars were pretty close together. If World War 2 were starting today, World War 1 would feel about as far back to us as 9/11.

The Soviet Union break up is now as distant a memory as JFK’s assassination was when the Soviet Union broke up.

Moving on to more inane topics, there have been more Super Bowls since the 1993 Cowboys–Bills SB than before it.

And West Germany’s 1974 World Cup victory happened closer to the first World Cup in 1930 than to today.

The Wonder Years aired from 1988 and 1993 and depicted the years between 1968 and 1973. When I watched the show, it felt like it was set in a time long ago. If a new Wonder Years premiered today, it would cover the years between 2000 and 2005.

Also, remember when Jurassic ParkThe Lion King, and Forrest Gump came out in theaters? Closer to the moon landing than today.

Y2K? Closer to the 70s than today.

Meanwhile, the O.J. Simpson trial is now half way between the 1960s and today. And closer to the Charles Manson trial.

As for you, if you’re 60 or older, you were born closer to the 1800s than today.

Today’s 35-year-olds were born closer to the 1940s than to today. 

There are a lot of options for that kind of calculation, but those two seemed like the most depressing to me. Worth mentioning that my 94-year-old grandmother was born closer to the Andrew Jackson administration than to today.

If you were born in the 1980s like me, a kid today who’s the age you were in 1990 is a full 30-year generation younger than you. They’ll remember Obama’s presidency the way you remember Reagan’s. 9/11 to them is the moon landing for you. The 90s seem as ancient to them as the 60s seem to you. To you, the 70s are just a little before your time—that’s how they think of the 2000s. They see the 70s how you see the 40s. And the hippy 60s seems as old to them as the Great Depression seems to you. 

But the weirdest thing about kids today: most of them will live to see the 2100s.

Sorry if this stressed you out. Happy New Year!

___________

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  3. Filipe Cabral Avatar
    Filipe Cabral
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    Noughties (00’s) and Teenies (10’s), every british person will tell you that! 🙂

  4. Sarah B❤ Avatar
    Sarah B❤
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    Man, if they only knew what was about to hit them back then…

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  8. Steve Avatar
    Steve
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    Shit, we’re old.

  9. dtobias Avatar
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    There is a new Wonder Years now, but they chose to set it in the ’60s like the original, making it further behind the times (but with a black family instead of a white one).

  10. bruh Avatar
    bruh
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    i was born in 0

  11. Alguém Avatar
    Alguém
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    I was born in 1954 in Brazil,
    Little boy…

  12. Natasha ❤️ ❤️ ❤️ Avatar

    looking aheading telling kids you were born in in the 90s…how are you still alive? they ask

    1. BoobLover Avatar
      BoobLover
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      OMG U HAVE BIG BOOBS!!!!!

  13. Philipp Shary Avatar
    Philipp Shary
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    I had a very similar shocking thought when a year ago I realized that GTA: Vice City that had been released in 2002 and depicted the 1980s was much closer to the eighties that it is to our times…

  14. Adilson Avatar
    Adilson
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    60y.o closer to 1900, not 1800

    1. Adam Arutyunov Avatar
      Adam Arutyunov
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      He wrote “1800s”, which means 1800 – 1899

      1. Tesla Fan 2015 Avatar
        Tesla Fan 2015
        Hide

        Simplistic quick mental math proficiency generally isn’t what it used to be. If you need to blame something for this situation then as an example, I’ve chosen to blame the handheld calculator. What’s a handheld calculator you ask as you read this on your smartphone with a built-in calculator. Sigh

  15. Brian Miller Avatar
    Brian Miller
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    My kid was born in 2014. If she does live to be the same age as her great grandfather when he died in 2015, at age 92, that’ll be the year 2106.

    1. Mathieu Lessard Avatar
      Mathieu Lessard
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      That is if humanity reaches the 2100’s

      1. Martin Shirley Avatar
        Martin Shirley
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        Better put your mask on and your bicycle helmet son.

  16. SnoozeWisely Avatar
    SnoozeWisely
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    SnoozeWisely
    Even Though I agree with most 35 year-old’s are born closer to 1940. However, Soon, believe a lot of 35 year-old’s will be closer to the future!

  17. Manasi K Avatar
    Manasi K
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    I was born in ’94 and desperately want to live until 2100’s . Its crazy how time lies.

    1. Esther Ineza Avatar
      Esther Ineza
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      HA hahhaha poor you!

    2. Artur Bernardo Mallmann Avatar
      Artur Bernardo Mallmann
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      Reply here if you achieved the next century. If we were lucky the communication will be complete, specially I being ’91 hahahahha

  18. bob cl Avatar
    bob cl
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    scary – shows how little time i have left

  19. James Heath Avatar
    James Heath
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    The person I always think about when time and people are concerned is Jeanne Louise Calment. She died in 1997 at the age of 122. I was 16 when she passed away. Although I have never met her. Those who did meet her met someone who most likely spoke with people born before the French revolution! She knew people who fought in the Napoleonic wars! She was born only a few years after the Franco-Prussian war ended! If someone who met her at age 5 lived to be the same age. They would pass away in 2114! Two people who lived at the same time could span 1875 to 2114. Even though odds are this 5 year old who will live to 122 never met her. They probably are out there somewhere.

    Also, 2020 most certainly did NOT go the way any of us expected unfortunately.

    1. kayumochi Avatar
      Hide

      Calment’s story of her age may be false.

  20. Erik E Erik Avatar
    Erik E Erik
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    I was really excited about showing my son some of my favorite episodes of the Simpsons when he gets to be 12 or 13. Suddenly I did the math, and that would mean in 2030 (when he turns 13), I’d be showing him episodes from 37 years prior. Which would be like, when those classic episodes aired, if someone was showing me their favorite shows from 1956– what is that, the Honeymooners? Milton Berle? Oh man, this game is cruel…

  21. Sofia Avatar
    Sofia
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    Cleopatra lived in a year closer to the iPhone’s invention than the piramids (Quéops, Quéfren and Miquerinos) ‘ construction

    1. bob cl Avatar
      bob cl
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      i get it

  22. Germany Avatar
    Germany
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    This is weird

    1. Esther Ineza Avatar
      Esther Ineza
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      Heyyo, German……………..:(

      That was wierd too…………..:)

  23. Jayanth Avatar
    Jayanth
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    wow, this did not age well.

  24. Andrew Baird Avatar
    Andrew Baird
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    We’re now in charge of making this a cool decade so when people 100 years from now are thinking about how incredibly old-timey the 2020s were, it’s old-timey in a cool appealing way and not a boring shitty way.

    We’re not off to a good start, Tim

    1. Artur Bernardo Mallmann Avatar
      Artur Bernardo Mallmann
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      In a similar way as 100 years before 😛

  25. Lee Nathan Avatar
    Lee Nathan
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    Here’s one that tickles me:

    ‘That 70s Show’ is about a time that was as far back in the past as ‘That 70s Show’ is now – about 20 years.

    Also, I was talking about the original Zelda games to an 11 year old the other day. I realized that it was the same as someone talking about something from the 1950s to me when I was his age. Yikes!

  26. Daniel Rodrigues Avatar
    Daniel Rodrigues
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    “But the weirdest thing about kids today: most of them will live to see the 2100s.”
    I’m 20 this year. I hope I’ll live to see it too. And 2200. And 2500. And 25,000. And 250,000.
    And more. One day humanity could explore the universe and understand everything. I want to be there for that.

    1. Eugeniu Rotari Avatar
      Eugeniu Rotari
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      Do not believe the smart guys. They want to manipulate your mind )))

      1. Vilmion Avatar
        Vilmion
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        what?

    2. Tor Gjerrestad Avatar
      Tor Gjerrestad
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      It would be nice to take a year off (or 1000) I think living to be 250 000 years just exhausts me. So please invent stasis pods.

  27. Indian girl Avatar
    Indian girl
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    https://media3.giphy.com/media/Swx36wwSsU49HAnIhC/giphy.gif

  28. David C Avatar
    David C
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    I was born in 1948, in 3 months I’ll be 73, with the prospect of living to 86, according to insurance calculators. When I was 21, the USA landed men on the Moon. 100 years previous, they had finished the Trans Continental Railroad. The interior of the country was empty. Now after 50 years, we are heading back, and perhaps Mars. Anyone want to guess what 2069 will be like? Tim!! I call this decade, The Roaring 20’s v2.0. When I was a kid I knew people who had worked for Al Capon. Not everyone had running water or electricity. Telephone Party Lines were still a thing. 1969, Star Trek featured a Captains secretary, asking for Kirk’s signature on a machine’s screen, that we now take for granted, when we receive a package from UPS or Amazon. Larry Niven wrote a book, Rim World, featuring a scene in which the characters grouped around a holographic depiction of the rim World, and Ann McCaffrey in her Pern series, showed her characters doing a similar thing, but around a planet. It was possible to switch visuals, to depict people, resources, weather ect. Today, we have s similar capability on our computers. How soon before we have the full up replication in real life?

    The world is changing rapidly. Take 1980 as year zero, and 1990 as 1, 2000 as 2, 2010 as 4, 2020, as 8, and follow your nose. By 2070 I’m predicting that we will be entering fantasy land. By 2100, The world will have changed as much, as it has since 800 AD to 2000 ad. Interesting coincidence. 1450 was the invention of the Printing Press. Ray Kurzweil has predicted the Singularity in 2045/50. Which will change society and humanity as much as the Printing Press. Elon’s Neuralink, is destined to merge with nanotechnology in the form of nano robots. ie Von Neumann probes within our bodies. The Borg won’t want to meet us. We will swallow them like an afternoon snack. I can’t wait. With friends like we will become, this Universe will seem too small. Anyone for Universe hopping?

    1. Daniel Rodrigues Avatar
      Daniel Rodrigues
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      The 2020s may be a really transformative decade as well.
      Here’s some food for thought – https://www.futuretimeline.net/forum/topic/21667-the-anteacceleratio-era/?p=273191

    2. Tor Gjerrestad Avatar
      Tor Gjerrestad
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      Some shit has happend this year, some shit has happend 4 years ago and I hope that thing that happend 4 years ago never happens again. But that shit that happend this year or similar will happen again, and other shit. Enough talk about shit.

      Some tec come to an end, like washers for cars. “No” change last 100years. I saw 2020 before 2000, and most of my tec-dreams still is not available. Little has happend in the “revolutionary” scale.

    3. Kroyel Avatar
      Kroyel
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      Wow, can’t remember the last time I read something so optimistic and in such high spirits, cheers to you bud, hope you’re still holding up well.

  29. Thabiso Mosepedi Avatar
    Thabiso Mosepedi
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    looking aheading telling kids you were born in in the 90s…how are you still alive? they ask

  30. BK Avatar
    BK
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    I asked a college aged kid I was working with what remembered about 9/11, he said he was in kindergarten, so he just remembers the adults acting weird… That was a HUGE wakeup moment for me because I was 30 in 2001 and EVERYBODY was affected by it, even if they didn’t know someone who was a direct victim (like me). My generation probably thinks of it like the baby boomers think of Pearl Harbor.

    1. Mr Yorke Avatar
      Mr Yorke
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      Actually Pearl Harbor happened before any of boomers were born. The defining event for boomers that i saw mentioned a lot is the crush of Challenger in 1986.

      1. Wane McGarity Avatar
        Wane McGarity
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        I think JFK’s assassination was much more of an unforgettable event for Boomers.

        1. Mr Yorke Avatar
          Mr Yorke
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          Boomers are people born from 1946 to 1964. JFK assassination in 1963 was huge, but half of boomers population were in kindergarten then, same logic as original comment. Challenger on the other hand happened when most of boomers were in their 30s.

          1. kayumochi Avatar
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            Gen X also started in 1964. The Boomer range doesn’t make sense other than merely looking at numbers. Culturally it is inaccurate.

    2. Aidan Frank Avatar
      Aidan Frank
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      Here’s something that will scare you: there are a lot of college-aged kids now that were born AFTER 9/11. As in, a good two or three years after 9/11.

  31. sekapero Avatar
    sekapero
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    I’m 23, but going out bar hopping (pre-pandemic, anyway) and realizing that they’ve started letting in kids that were born in 2002 is always a mild shocker.

  32. Mr Happy Man Avatar
    Mr Happy Man
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    Doing the halfway point game gives some kind of proper perspective on change.

  33. DonutLord Avatar
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    Was born in 2008 but don’t know who the “Simpsons” are
    Not even Spongebob (I know the name cause of memes)
    LOL
    [probably cause I watched Nat Geo instead of cartoons when I was younger]

  34. lisagd22 Avatar
    lisagd22
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    It gets really depressing when you apply that thinking to yourself. It was bad enough that I realized I was born just 18 years after WWII, but it recently hit me that I was born closer to WWI than today.

  35. Thurgood Stubbs Avatar
    Thurgood Stubbs
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    We’re now in charge of making this a cool decade so when people 100 years from now are thinking about how incredibly old-timey the 2020s were, it’s old-timey in a cool appealing way and not a boring shitty way.

    I think we got off on the wrong foot.

    1. strictly speaking... Avatar
      strictly speaking…
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      The guys living in the 20s had just gone through the spanish flu. We’ll be okay.

      1. Mr Happy Man Avatar
        Mr Happy Man
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        The Spanish flu, though, did not have the society-changing effects that COVID does. The policy makers at the top 100 years ago were barely concerned with it, whereas COVID is at the center of our leaders decisions today. Why? That’s for future historians (who aren’t born yet) to figure out. That is the primary difference. Indeed, there was a pandemic in 1969 that appears worse than COVID, but policymakers gave it zero attention.

        1. Orhan Gazi Yalçın Avatar
          Orhan Gazi Yalçın
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          I think one of the many reasons is that Spanish flu outbreak occured during WW1 and most countried his the outbreak from the citizens (i) to continue with the war efforts, (ii) simple because it was easier to hide it with limited communication technology. It is called the Spanish flu because Spain -as a neutral state in WW1 they didn’t worry about the war- was the first country to acknowledge the outbreak.

        2. L Haviland Avatar
          L Haviland
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          “The Spanish flu, though, did not have the society-changing effects that COVID does.”

          I would argue that It did, but that they were and are impossible to disentangle from the effects of the massive war going on at the time.

      2. L Haviland Avatar
        L Haviland
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        This comment has aged cataclysmically poorly lol.

        1. H Man Avatar
          H Man
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          Yeah because a cold flu with a 99.9% recovery rate is horror show pandemic. Give me a break.

          1. Redart Webbski Avatar
            Redart Webbski
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            yup

          2. yobeast Avatar
            yobeast
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            You know, statements like yours are okay when talking about kettle. With humans, not so much. 400k died in the US alone jesus christ.
            Also 99.9% isn’t even true, 96 million cases and 2 million deaths leaves you with 98% according to the official numbers

            1. H Man Avatar
              H Man
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              Wow you really swallow the MSM up don’t you? Every death from old age, heart attack, car accident, whatever, was classified as Covid because there was a huge financial incentive for the hospitals to do so. Do some research on some non legacy media news sites and educate yourself before you spew your nonsensical dribble.

            2. Jeff Blanks Avatar
              Jeff Blanks
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              I don’t seem to be aware of hospitals rolling in the dough. Would you care to explain this “huge financial incentive”?

  36. Adriana Avatar
    Adriana
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    It’s kind of frightening read this post today, particularly the first fact because, civil war lasted 4 years and caused +620K of deaths, WWII lasted 6 years and caused +405K. Both wars greatly affected the country and its economy (during and after)… And now 2020: the coronavirus (only in the US) in just 3 months has caused 105K deaths…
    With 6 months left, the world isn’t ready yet.

    1. Orhan Gazi Yalçın Avatar
      Orhan Gazi Yalçın
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      Globally 50m people died in WW2…

  37. urmi Avatar
    urmi
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    Lost me at the mention of Super Bowls and Wonder Years. I’m not from the US, you see 🙁

    1. Thurgood Stubbs Avatar
      Thurgood Stubbs
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      It might interest you to know that the winner of the Super Bowl is dubbed the “World Champion” team, therefore they are also your champions, whether you like it or not! So there!

      1. Sean Greeves Avatar
        Sean Greeves
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        That is so dumb. The world of the USA, yaaaaaaay.

  38. Daniel Kokotajlo Avatar
    Daniel Kokotajlo
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    “But the weirdest thing about kids today: most of them will live to see the 2100s.”

    Or none of them will.

    1. Brandon Avatar
      Brandon
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      Yeah, because there is no option “Or a minority of them will” is possible…? A lot more possible than your “none of them will” option. After a big war, pandemic virus, natural disasters, … it’s much more likely that at least a few of them will survive.

      1. pauliunas Avatar
        pauliunas
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        can’t you just take a joke? :/

  39. David Avatar
    David
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    Funny how you mentioned that part at the end about how younger people perceive the 80s like older people perceive the 60s. Funny because, being 19 years old, that is how perceive the 80s-90s. The 60s already seems pretty darn distant to us now and before that seems pretty far away.

    1. harvey Avatar
      harvey
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      Yeah, being a 14-year-old this is how I see the 80s, The cool era where my parents grew up in.
      The 60s, good jokes and with good music and good cars.
      The 40s, that’s the really olden days.
      I bet that these perceptions would be very different to someone born in the 60s or something.
      (Also 9/11 happened nearly 6 years before I was born. I guess that’s like JFK to 70’s kids?)

  40. David Avatar
    David
    Hide

    Funny how you mentioned that part at the end about younger people today thinking the 80s seem as old as the 60s do to older people. Funny because, being a 19 year old myself, that is how I perceive the 80s-90s and times before. The 60s seems pretty darn distant to us now and before that, man that’s getting pretty far away.

  41. chrysaliz Avatar
    chrysaliz
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    “most of them will live to see the early 100’s” i doubt that, most of them already killed themselves or plan to
    welcome to 2020

    1. Regret Avatar
      Regret
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      Your definition of ‘most’ needs calibration.

  42. Erin Datesman Avatar
    Erin Datesman
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    I think about this stuff way too much.

    The Wonder Years- I was 13 going on 14 in late January 1988 when the show premiered. Kevin was my age, in 88, in 1968. 20 years. Kevin would have been 33 or 34 in 88. Now, in 2020, I’ll be 46 and Kevin would be 66.

    When I was in my teens in late 80s, the late 50s were 30 years away. We had 50s day at school. Teens today look at the late 80s like I looked at the 50s and the late 90s as I looked at the 60s! They have 80s day, probably. No wonder they always ask me about the 80s and 90s! About right since if I had kids they’d be teens, I certainly asked my parents about the 50s and 60s as a teen.

    You can’t push away time.

    My grandfather was born in 1911. He died in 1986, at a relatively young age, 75. His former roommate, Barry Goldwater (at Stanton Military School in VA), made it to 1998. Yes, the will be kids who are now 8 who will undoubtedly make it to 2100.
    I was held by a former Rough Rider who fought in the Spanish American War with Teddy Roosevelt, in 1976. The war was in 1898. I was born in March 1974.

    1. Maya Avatar
      Maya
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      As a current teenager in high school, I can confirm that we have 80s days. Once we even had a 90s day (high ponytails, denim, Friends t-shirts).

      In thirty years my future child is going to be having 2010s days at school, and I’ll wonder where the time has gone.

      1. Victor Avatar
        Victor
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        wow you have an 80s day at your school? Do you want to swap schools?

  43. smuhlberger Avatar
    smuhlberger
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    Some decades back I ran across the fact that Bertrand Russell was raised by his grandfather, Lord John Russell, who led the fight for the great Reform Bill (parliamentary reform) which took effect in 1832. Bertrand died in in 1970. And I was an adult in 1970. It astonished me that I could have met someone who knew Lord John.

    1. RyAgijon Avatar
      RyAgijon
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      Lord John was a member of parliament when Napoleon was emperor. Insanely weird that I just learnt about him earlier today by watching an interview of Bertrand Russell. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fb3k6tB-Or8

  44. Freddy Grande Avatar
    Freddy Grande
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    Isn’t there a better metric than “X event is closer than Y event”? It seems so awkward and hard to relate for people that don’t specifically care for or know about those US-centric events.

    1. Chromedbustop Avatar
      Chromedbustop
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      You could use any dates/events of your choosing which have significance to you.

  45. Vikram Vaka Avatar
    Vikram Vaka
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    The Sick Giant series was absolutely amazing (as is most of your work).

    After reading this series, as well as reading your article about artificial general intelligence, and watching the Kurzgesagt video about UBI (and reading about UBI), I am convinced that nations worldwide should allocate atleast 15% of their GDP towards UBI both to decrease political divisions between people and as a first step to prepare for AGI (artificial general intelligence). Otherwise, AGI when it arrives is going to hit the global economy like a tidal wave.

    Tim, what are your thoughts about Andrew Yang? Do you feel a more unifying leader like Yang is the kind of leader the country needs right now?

    I ask because as someone with a spouse actively working in AI development, the next two decades, humanity has one simple decision to make that will decide if most of the US live as economic slaves to the wealthy or if all citizens share in the fruits of economic prosperity.

    You should absolutely read this short story if you have not already done so, about the choice that humanity will have to make soon. The short story touches on many of the same themes that you write about…

    https://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm

    The Enlightened Mind = The Self Actualized Mind that sits on top of Maslow’s Hierachy of Needs pyramid.

    This is the one element missing from your otherwise excellent and spot on analysis of the primitive mind vs the enlightened mind… Maslow’s Hierachy of Needs. The primative mind dominates when even the bottom pillars of Maslow’s Hierachy of Needs are not met. When a person’s basic needs are met, the Enlightened Mind taking on a greater role. This is why nations that do a good job of meeting the basic needs of all of it’s people tend to have more enlightened individuals. This is why people like Bill Gates whose Maslowian needs are all met tend to a take a more global view of the world.

    It’s why I am supporting Human-Centered Captialism and Universal Basic Income, because those policies are catered towards meeting the basic Maslowian Needs of as many people as possible, so that all people can make more enlightened decisions.

    But I do think this entire series of yours should be taught in schools. It is an excellent primer on the nature of humanity.

    1. jane Avatar
      jane
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      Excellent comment

  46. Gammakcl Avatar
    Gammakcl
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    This got me thinking 😮

  47. […] It’s 2020 and you’re in the future (!!!) […]

  48. […] 2020 and we all live in the future! As we enter a new decade, I thought I’d look back, as I did this time last year, and reflect on […]

  49. […] It’s 2020 and you’re in the future. Some perspective on history, the present, what’s older, what’s closer, and some mind blowage at Wait But Why. “[R]emember when Jurassic Park, The Lion King, and Forrest Gump came out in theaters? Closer to the moon landing than today.” […]

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  53. Andre Avatar
    Andre
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    Based on the fabulous work of professor Angus Madison [1], I made some conclusions, all of them on a per capita GDP base, adjusted for inflation and purchase power parity (using 1990’s International dollars):

    – Between the year 1 A.D. and 1820 (Industrial Revolution) the world economy had almost no growth, just 0.02% per year;

    – On 20th century, we had an average 1.58% GDP growth per year;

    – On the 1820-2000 period the figure is 1.23% per year.

    Given that the Austria’s per capita GDP is 28,024.36, if we could sustain the 1.58% world GDP growth on the 21st century, all humanity will have the same per capita GDP as today’s Austria, and could, in theory, be on the living standard of today’s Austria with a free market economy, welfare state, small unequality and high HDI.

    What are your thoughs on that? Is it feasible? Are we heading for a far better planet? Am I missing something?

    [1] http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-file_03-2007.xls

    1. Alex Avatar
      Alex
      Hide

      “small unequality and high HDI” – current capitalism system has lots of benefits but “small unequality” is non of them. It fundamentally increases inequality because of wealth compound effect.

      1. Andre Avatar
        Andre
        Hide

        Áustria. I’m talking about Austria or any other Nordic model country.

    2. The Phoenix Avatar
      The Phoenix
      Hide

      Obviously your real point is that Austria fckin rocks. Greetings from Vienna!

    3. Omri Avatar
      Omri
      Hide

      Well… This kind of thinking, as if larger GDP is the definition of a “better planet”, is at the root of the climate crisis we’re having, especially if your plan is to keep growing exponentially. The resources on earth are finite. Sustainability must be taken into consideration when planning for any future. Not just GDP.

      1. Andre Avatar
        Andre
        Hide

        No, the climate crisis is caused by carbon energy sources, if the energy comes from clean resources it can be managed. It’s already happening, look how fast UK changed its energy matrix.

        The economy don’t need to grow forever just more 80 years.

        Not all growth depends on natural resources, the services sector is an example. All advanced economies have a huge services sector.

        1. Omri Avatar
          Omri
          Hide

          That’s a good point, but you’re still assuming that GDP = better planet. I’m inviting you to consider that the GDP in heaven (however you imagine it) is smaller than that of Austria. People just do what excites them the most, and the natural environment is flourishing with animals and landscapes uninterrupted by man, and food is being grown by robots for example… Not a lot of GDP, but much better living.

          1. Andre Avatar
            Andre
            Hide

            More GDP per capita leads to a better country, there is no reason to imagine that it won’t work on a planet scale.

            You can use any index you want, mean income, Gini, HDI, literacy, Quality of Life Index, number of nobels, all of them shows a strong correlation with per capita GDP.

    4. SamuraiArtGuy Avatar

      The forever growth that global capitalism demands is still dependent on resource extraction, even sustainable energy. The devices and technology for renewables still requires resources to build. The need for goods and services still requires tangible resources beyonds energy.

      And its much more pernicious than people think. Near me is a gas station chain off of an interstate highway in martinsburg west virginia. It features a row of Tesla super-chargers, for Tesla drivers. However, 92 Percent of elcetricity generation in WV is still COAL. We’ve a long way to go. Not to mention the resource footprint of BUILDING EVs.

      1. Andre Avatar
        Andre
        Hide

        There is no need of forever growth, just 80 years at 1.8% per year, as the original comment.
        2018 for example was 3.6%.

        Of course there is urgency on moving to a carbon free economy, but apart from US and China, the rest of the developed world is doing fine. ICE cars are banned on Europe around 2030 (varies by country).

        I’m not sure about the footprint of EVs, but Musk says the batteries are almost 100% recyclable. The rest of the car is similar of today’s cars.

        1. foljs Avatar
          foljs
          Hide

          “There is no need of forever growth, just 80 years at 1.8% per year, as the original comment. 2018 for example was 3.6%.”

          This growth metric of GDP is BS, and has counted different things across time. In the early 18th to early/mid 20th century it was actual low hanging fruit important food, technologies and goods growth.

          From then on, with the rise of the service industry its mostly BS and increasing lower marginal value stuff.

          The growth is only real in places outside the West that had significantly lower starting points to begin with.

    5. Erin Datesman Avatar
      Erin Datesman
      Hide

      Someone on Quora once said the world’s progress would look like a straight line of no progress, then a sharp peak from late 1800s to perhaps 22nd or 23rd century, then flat again. The peak is the use of fossil fuels.

      Of course there will be other energy sources. I just thought that was interesting. Made me feel beneficial for having been born when I did.

      1. Erik de Wilde Avatar
        Erik de Wilde
        Hide

        Where’s the link to that Quora answe/question? 🙂

    6. Andre Avatar
      Andre
      Hide

      Updating:

      https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7992751/2019-global-CO2-emissions-match-time-high-2018-cuts-emissions.html

      “In spite of the dire figures, the IEA claimed the findings were ‘grounds for optimism,’ pointing to the fact that total emissions hadn’t risen over all, while the global economy had grown by 2.9 percent, suggesting economic prosperity can continue even with a focus on managing greenhouse gases.”

    7. Eric Duminil Avatar
      Eric Duminil
      Hide

      What you’re missing: economics is complete, utter hogwash. You can prove literally anything if you simply ignore enough laws of physics.
      Please include oil dependency and climate change in your analysis, and look again if we’re really heading for a far better planet.
      Finally, 1.6% over 100 years is almost a factor x5 (1.016**100 ~ 4.89), I have no clue what this has anything to do with Austria’s per capita GDP.

  54. Daniel Avatar
    Daniel
    Hide

    But the weirdest thing about kids today: most of them will live to see the 2100s.

    Well maybe… If humans have miraculously found a way to reverse climate change and survive this mass extinction…

    1. Thao Nguyen Avatar
      Thao Nguyen
      Hide

      Especially kids who are born today, if there will be no mass extinction, they’ll get to see the movie 100 years that release in year 2115 with their grandchildren…

    2. Antonio Craveiro Avatar
      Antonio Craveiro
      Hide

      humans lived through the ice age and they were really primitive.
      No one knows exactly what will happen but I doubt it will change the climate as much as huge volcano eruptions or ice ages.

      1. L Haviland Avatar
        L Haviland
        Hide

        I think he was referring to the “most” part.

  55. Eleonora Villari Avatar
    Eleonora Villari
    Hide

    Yes, this did stress me out (born in 1983)
    expecially the “most of them will live to see the 2100s” part.
    I’m openly envious.

    1. maximkazhenkov11 . Avatar
      maximkazhenkov11 .
      Hide

      Why would you assume that you won’t make it lol

    2. Isaiah Campbell Avatar
      Isaiah Campbell
      Hide

      I was born 1999 and while it’s highly unlikely I’m hoping I can live till the age of 101 so I can see the 2100s

    3. Brandon Avatar
      Brandon
      Hide

      Why envious? 2100 is not thát special, is it?
      Think about the adult people 100 years ago having that discussion about the kids born in 1920 saying “most of them will live to see the year 2000”, thát would have been very frustrating for some of them. But 2100… nah, nothing special.

      1. Jas Avatar
        Jas
        Hide

        Yeah the year 2000 is not only a new year, it is a new decade, a new century, and a new millenia. I’d be rather jealous if that was me too. I have a slight chance of seeing the new century, though, as I was a 2003 baby.

  56. Paul Powell Avatar
    Paul Powell
    Hide

    The British astronomer Sir Patrick Moore knew the Wright brothers and Neil Armstrong.

  57. chastienon Avatar
    chastienon
    Hide

    “…Today’s 35-year-olds were born closer to the 1940s than to today. …”
    Isn’t it “closer to the 1950s rather than 1940s?

    1. Batmobile84 Avatar
      Batmobile84
      Hide

      December 31st, 1949 is technically still the 40s and 35 years before 1985.

    2. Suzanne Brombacher Avatar
      Suzanne Brombacher
      Hide

      This article is from 4 years ago, so you are correct.
      https://time.com/4499648/nirvana-nevermind-25-baby-spencer-elden/

  58. mdinaz Avatar
    mdinaz
    Hide

    My stepdad was born in 1921, and his dad was born in 1867, nearly 100 years before me. I didn’t have my first biological kid until i was in my 40s. My daughter will likely live to see the 2100s. That’s a huge span of time.

    1. William Chang Avatar
      William Chang
      Hide

      wow , incredible

    2. Erin Datesman Avatar
      Erin Datesman
      Hide

      My great grandfather was born in 1876. He’d have been the age of the sheriff in Back to the Future 3’s (set in 1885) son, who looked about nine or ten.

      I think about what he saw in his span. Amazing. He died in 1956.

      Mdinaz- your step dad’s father was born the same year as Laura Ingalls Wilder. A completely different world. She lived until 1957.

    3. lisagd22 Avatar
      lisagd22
      Hide

      You remind me of two of President John Tyler’s grandsons, who are still alive.

  59. dhbaxbg Avatar
    dhbaxbg
    Hide

    Things like this always remind me to an old song, with the line: “in 100 years all will be gone”.

    It is sad but oddly comforting. I don’t know what will be in 100 years or if I will still be at all, but one thing is sure: I will not have the problems anymore which I have today (well, maybe not absolutely sure, but very probable).

  60. Amos Shapir Avatar
    Amos Shapir
    Hide

    My grandparents were born around 1890. I was born in the 1950’s. I have no grandchildren yet, but I expect (hopefully) for them to be born around 2020’s or 2030’s, and with a bit of luck live to about 2110.

    That means that all the people I have known, and expect to know in my life, will have lived over a span of 220 years!

    To put it another way, there are some people alive today who knew people who had met Napoleon!

    1. Yeftheimmigrant Avatar
      Yeftheimmigrant
      Hide

      Humm…..
      So, someone born in 1821, would have met someone born in 1921, who would still be alive today?
      But to “meet” Napoleon you have to have been at least 10 years old in 1821 to remember meeting him, not mentioning the logistics of sailing to Saint Helena in the Southern Atlantic….

      1. Amos Shapir Avatar
        Amos Shapir
        Hide

        Sorry what I wrote was not what I meant — which is that there were people who knew both those who (could) have met Napoleon, and people who are alive today.

        Let’s say everyone lives to about 80 and may have grandchildren at 70.
        Person A 1811-1891; person B 1881-1961; person C 1951-
        So person B knew both person A who had met Napoleon, and person C who is alive today.

        1. maximkazhenkov11 . Avatar
          maximkazhenkov11 .
          Hide

          That’s kind of underwhelming, like ‘I once met someone who met Obama once’

          1. Amos Shapir Avatar
            Amos Shapir
            Hide

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27ve_danced_with_a_man,_who%27s_danced_with_a_girl,_who%27s_danced_with_the_Prince_of_Wales

          2. Hal Dey Avatar
            Hal Dey
            Hide

            My Grandmother told me the story her grandmother told her about Napoleon coming thru Prussia.

  61. José Luis LG Avatar
    José Luis LG
    Hide

    Hi, I am a mexican 31 years old male (proudly born in 1988, and sorry for my bad english), and I like so much this type of comparisons about time, the years and decades, as well as their music, fashion, cars, media, etc., and I loved your post so much! For example, I can’t believe 1990 was 30 years ago from now. I will be pleased to live the new decade (their good stuff indeed) as well as the next decades of my life. I wish the 2020s to be a good time to all of us, greetings from southern Mexico.

  62. interestedobserver2 Avatar
    interestedobserver2
    Hide

    This really hits home. I’ve been thinking about this sort of thing a lot recently. My parents were born in the 1920s (Dad in 1922, Mom in 1924). I’m a Gulf War veteran (DESERT STORM, not the 2003 version). When it was fought, I was 30 years old. I’ll be 60 when it’s 30-year anniversary rolls around.

    My father was a World War II vet. Thirty years after the end of World War II, it was 1975 and I was 15 years old. Saigon fell that year, and I’d grown up watching the Vietnam War on TV (along with Kennedy’s funeral — I was three; the Apollo Program — teachers would bring TVs into the classroom so we could watch the most recent launch; and Martin Luther King’s “I Have a Dream” speech).

    My Grandfather fought in World War I, and used to tell us little kids “war stories” (no doubt highly sanitized) about fighting the “Boche” in the trenches…

    I was born 100 years after the election campaign that saw Abraham Lincoln elected and the Civil War get underway. The year I was born, the Napoleonic Wars had been over for 155 years. This year, our own Civil War has been over for 155 years…

    I remember when gas was $0.24 a gallon…at the expensive places. I remember the gas lines in 1973. I lived in El Paso, Texas in 1979, and remember the helicopters roaring low overhead in the middle of the night as they practiced for the Iranian Hostage Rescue mission (that ended in disaster at Desert One). No one in El Paso would talk about those helicopters, and if you mentioned them in public, it was like cussing in church…dead silence, and then everyone talked about something else and tried to pretend you hadn’t said anything. Even the local news kept quiet about it.

    Call of Cthulhu was published 39 years ago. At the time, there were people alive (my folks among them) who had been alive during the “classic era” of the 1920s. Cthuhu Now (originally set in the late ’80’s-early 90’s) is almost as long ago as the original “classic era” of the 20’s was from when CoC was published. Reading Cthulhu Now today is like visiting a museum would be for kids today. I was in a movie a couple of years ago that had a scene depicting a phone booth on a street corner. I remember a teenage girl in the audience behind me asking her friends what that thing was…her friends didn’t know either.

    I served in Berlin from 1985 to 1989, and remember watching the Wall come down on TV the year after I left. We used to hear the gunfire in the middle of the night as some poor soul from East Berlin tried to escape to the west and was shot down by the Communist Border Guards. Now you can only see about 10 feet of the wall in the Checkpoint Charlie Museum. Some of my people from Berlin later sent me a chunk of barbed wire taken from the Wall (which was included on my retirement flag plaque in2004). I retired 15.5 years ago…after a 20+ year career in the military.

    We “won” the Cold War — something I thought would never happen in my lifetime. But it happened so long ago now that children today can’t really imagine what it was like, and have no real understanding of either a bi-polar world (USSR versus USA), or the idea that we could all die in 30 minutes if someone made a mistake in judgement.

    I wonder what people will be doing in 2060, when my 100th Birthday rolls around (I’m very sure I won’t be there to see it), and what they’ll believe *really* happened back in the 1960s? It would be very interesting for me to be a fly on the wall THAT year!

    1. EdMan Avatar
      EdMan
      Hide

      It all hits home for me as well. It’s a reminder of why we leave the past in the past – time stands still for nobody. Enjoying the moment’s the best thing we can do for ourselves on a daily basis, because who knows what tomorrow will bring.

    2. The Dark Playground Avatar
      The Dark Playground
      Hide

      I hope (in the best way possible) that your children and grandchildren don’t need to follow in your family’s footsteps, as far as fighting in wars is concerned.

      1. interestedobserver2 Avatar
        interestedobserver2
        Hide

        Thank you, that’s my greatest wish too. Though, human nature being what it is, I fear they might…

  63. Suzanne Brombacher Avatar
    Suzanne Brombacher
    Hide

    It’s good to know I’m not the only person in the world who has pondered how weird it is that the early 90s are as far away from us now as the early Sixties were far away from the early Nineties.

    The 90s, to me, seem quite recent, but even back then, the Sixties seemed ancient. I always thought that was because I was just a little kid in the Sixties, and we all know the older you get, the faster time seems to pass. But even my kids, now in their late 20s, who were little kids (or younger) in the 90s, say the 90s don’t seem that far away. I sure as heck didn’t think of the 60s as being “not that far away” when I was their age circa 1990.

    I think this is because pop culture (fashion, music, styles, etc.) hasn’t changed as much in the past thirty years (say, 1991 to 2020) as they did in the thirty years prior. (1961 to 1991). I also think it’s due to the internet. For example, you can take yourself back to the past on Youtube any time you want, so the past never really becomes the past, at least not the same way it did in the time prior to the mid 1990s with the advent of the internet. Before that, the past could only be “relived” in memory, on physical recordings, through word of mouth, or through the occasional TV show, or in books or old newspapers.

    Even so, it still makes my head explode when I realize the same amount of time that has passed since Y2K is just about the same amount of time that passed since the year I graduated high school (1979) to the beginning of the 2000s. Thank you for giving these thoughts of mine a “voice” since I always felt like it was weird to talk about them and that no one would understand what the hell I was talking about.

    1. Peter Popley Avatar
      Peter Popley
      Hide

      You’re not weird, and I understand exactly what you are talking about. I grew up in the 50’s and thought similar thoughts. I tend to try to figure out things others deem to be trivia. 🙂

    2. Yeftheimmigrant Avatar
      Yeftheimmigrant
      Hide

      I think this is because pop culture (fashion, music, styles, etc.)
      hasn’t changed as much in the past thirty years (say, 1991 to 2020) as
      they did in the thirty years prior. (1961 to 1991)

      I disagree. Pop culture has changed as much or more as back then. You are just in a different phase in your life that makes you less perceptive to the changes. But they are all out there, with the fashion, music and style more varied than in the past.

      But then, my perception is probably skewed too. My point is, our perception of reality changes as we age.

  64. Fmr ATrealDonaldTrump  ???????? Avatar
    Fmr ATrealDonaldTrump ????????
    Hide

    First paragraph or two are silly. The “oughts” have been regularly used, in this century and the previous, for the first decade. The “tens” or similar have been used for the just-passed decade.

    1. Yeftheimmigrant Avatar
      Yeftheimmigrant
      Hide

      Humm….Nope.
      People say 1910s or 2010s, not 10s, and is not commonly used.
      The 20s though…..or 30s, 40s, 50s, etc.

  65. tomharrisonjr Avatar
    tomharrisonjr
    Hide

    My Mom passed away last year at the ripe old age of 93, born in 1925. We thought about all the stuff that exists today that didn’t when she was a kid. Like cars we’re totally a new thing. Electricity was making its way out of cities. Phones. TV. Computers, of course … and like, how did she manage for all those years without a smartphone?

  66. Zdeněk Moravec Avatar
    Zdeněk Moravec
    Hide

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0aaefae8c871d3c3432e22604092a0e3fd8d282319897e33f7af14c3b1396ae2.png

  67. You Avatar
    You
    Hide

    Immortality with technology is a trap. Its to keep you as a slave working for “The Monarch” forever. Even the bible foretold of this. Chips and such implanting into humans. its no good I tell you. Want true freedom? learn how to escape the cycle of life and death. Someone really really famous did and made a very easy way to escape the cycle of reincarnation or what white coat call constant transformation. can you guess who? i bet you know how. Name rhymes with your favorite pizza topping.

    1. Sandor Clegane Avatar
      Sandor Clegane
      Hide

      Sorry, I just can’t stop thinking about this comment. Are you talking about Cheesus?

      1. Yeftheimmigrant Avatar
        Yeftheimmigrant
        Hide

        Possibly. I think he wants you to live your life in accordance with a 3000 year old book written by an early antiquity pastoral civilization.

    2. XVS650 Avatar
      XVS650
      Hide

      Pam and hineapple?

    3. Yeftheimmigrant Avatar
      Yeftheimmigrant
      Hide

      My Echo-Chamber Radar just detected the feared Obligated Reasoning Syndrome.

      But just to play the game, if a possible post-Singularity technological immortality makes me a slave of a “Monarch”, I would still have a chance to find a way to become free and enjoy my immortality as I wish, while dead is being dead, and paraphrasing Ricky Gervais, there is only one life and there is no sequel.

    4. Lox Avatar
      Lox
      Hide

      Bon Jovi?

  68. Grishka Avatar
    Grishka
    Hide

    I still hope I’ll live to see the 2100s. Because if we do invent an AGI, it’s very likely we’ll have immortality figured out for good. But even without AGIs there’s still progress happening in the field of life extension research right now. There’s a good chance people living right now will be able to reach the longevity escape velocity.

  69. Michael Soareverix Avatar
    Michael Soareverix
    Hide

    This is why I’m interested in extending the human lifespan. There’s still so much to see!

  70. Ben Mullen Avatar
    Ben Mullen
    Hide

    I made a thing on fb once that looked like this timeline deal because Prince’s song 1999 as about the future for almost exactly as it was about the past when he died.

  71. […] of the best ways to feel old is to look to your past and realize how long ago it was. Wait Buy Why demonstrates with a bunch of timeline splits. For example: “Remember when Jurassic Park, The Lion King, and Forrest Gump came out in […]

  72. Richard Newman Avatar
    Richard Newman
    Hide

    “As for you, if you’re 60 or older, you were born closer to the 1800s than today.”?
    I think you mean the 1900s.

  73. […] It’s 2020 and You’re in the Future […]

  74. […] No WaitButWhy, Tim Urban afirma que o futuro já chegou, agora que todos vivemos nos anos […]

  75. Dave Corsi Avatar
    Dave Corsi
    Hide

    Great article. For years I thought I was the only one whose brain was wired to think in these terms!

  76. Bindle Avatar
    Bindle
    Hide

    For what it’s worth . . . the hexadecimal code for a space, a blank, is 20, which would make this year, wait for it . . . blankety-blank.

    1. Ícaro Pereira Avatar
      Ícaro Pereira
      Hide

      We could’ve gone crazy imagining computer bugs about this! Happy ______!

  77. klear101 Avatar
    klear101
    Hide

    Uhmmmm… The last two decades were called the “aughts” and the “teens” (the same as in all previous centuries). It’s a shame the author spent the last twenty years thinking there were not names for these decades as we were living through them! Sad that no one has invented small handheld computers with access to the largest collection of reference materials and data in the history of mankind; you know, to be able to check this sort of thing. 😉

    Lots of other great info and perspective in the article though!

    1. Adrian Pauly Avatar
      Hide

      I never called them that, it sounds dumb 🙂

    2. Leah Newton Avatar
      Leah Newton
      Hide

      Yeah but hardly anyone actually called them that.

      You: Back in the early teens, when I was in high school, I was super fly.***

      Me: You mean when you were a teen, you were super fly?

      You: No, well that too… but I’m using “the teens” as the name for the decade from 2010-2019. I was in high school from 2010-2014.

      Me: Whaa? But where’s the “teen” in 2010, 2011, or 2012? I’m confused.

      You: Honestly I’m not sure what’s going on with this conversation either. I’m being forced to pretend I’m 23 years old and use phrases like “super fly.”

      *** This quote was originally me saying I was a dork, but it didn’t make sense for me to say this, since the whole point is that I would never call this decade “the teens.” So I made you the speaker, and then felt guilty for forcing you to call yourself a dork. Hence the super fly thing. My apologies.
      ______________

      Also, the only people I’ve ever heard refer to 2000-2009 as “the aughts” were show hosts on NPR. And when “the aughts” were happening, I wasn’t listening to NPR. I was listening to stations that played “the best of the 80s, the 90s, and today.” Maybe “the aughts” sounds too much like “thoughts” and needs to be over-enunciated. Maybe people felt weird talking about “the aughts” because we don’t use that phrase in a ton of other contexts. “Is your child a teenager yet?” “No, he’s still an aughtager.”

      As a kid, I thought I would have to permanently refer to 2000-2009 as “today” the way we talk about “modernism” as whatever happened before “post-modernism.” And I was worried that 2010-2019 would become “post-today.” I now see that “the teens” works better than “the post-todays,” but it’s not without its own problems.

      The fact is that a lot of people felt very awkward for a long time, and we could use some help from artificial intelligence to reduce the awkwardness in 2100-2120.

      1. Sweetbriar Avatar
        Sweetbriar
        Hide

        The “oughts” or the “noughts”, both ought and nought are terms for a zero. It’s what your great grandparents used back when the oughts last came around. Nought is more often used to mean “nothing” (“his plans came to nought”), and ought can still be heard in old Westerns, especially when talking about rifles (“double ought” something whatever).

  78. RichmondBread Avatar
    RichmondBread
    Hide

    In the 2020’s, let’s make more White Babies!

    1. Sovereign Avatar
      Sovereign
      Hide

      I’m brown and live in Pakistan and I think its a shame that diversity is cool for everyone except whites.

      The world will be a much sadder place without the contributions of white people, like the ideals of human rights, freedom and liberty.

      Its sad that places like Japan and Europe aren’t producing babies and are demographically dying.

      1. RichmondBread Avatar
        RichmondBread
        Hide

        True. It seems “diversity” is code for anti White

    2. FireBreathingLunatic Avatar
      FireBreathingLunatic
      Hide

      How about, let’s not make ANY babies, given the current alarming rate of overpopulation, with a global population steadily nearing 8 billion.

      1. LAPhil Avatar
        LAPhil
        Hide

        There is no overpopulation, that’s a myth. There is an unequal distribution of resources which results in poverty and starvation in many parts of the world, and a lot of people assume the lack of resources is due to overpopulation. There is actually more than enough room on the planet for more people.

        1. FireBreathingLunatic Avatar
          FireBreathingLunatic
          Hide

          There definitely are environmental impacts to an exponentially-growing human population. The planet is not an endlessly-enlarging sphere–there is a breaking point & a limit to its resources & capacity to provide
          equitably for everyone.

          Overpopulation is not just a “myth,” considering the evidence & data out there
          that indicate the contrary & describe its long-term consequences. And while scientists are still undecided about earth’s exact carrying capacity, it is not infinite. Though of course it certainly depends in part on the varied rate of resource consumption around the world.

          It’s easiest of all to keep it vague by claiming that there’s “more than enough room” for even “more people.” How many more? 20 billion more? 50 billion? Exponentially more?
          In reality, the problem is far more complex than simply having “enough room” for everyone to fit. And again, the planet is not infinite in size, & neither are its resources.

          1. LAPhil Avatar
            LAPhil
            Hide

            I got you the first time.

            1. FireBreathingLunatic Avatar
              FireBreathingLunatic
              Hide

              Sorry, you didn’t get anything.

              Except flagrantly display your intolerance & close-mindedness for views contrary to your own.

              Whatever doesn’t agree with your views is marked as spam–simply because it doesn’t align with your own beliefs?
              “Free speech” at its finest.

            2. LAPhil Avatar
              LAPhil
              Hide

              Get lost, you bloviating asshole. I’m tired of hearing from you, especially when you repeat yourself. And it wasn’t me who flagged your comment as spam.

            3. FireBreathingLunatic Avatar
              FireBreathingLunatic
              Hide

              How about YOU get lost–NO ONE ever forced you to respond to MY comment, in the first place.
              If you respond, then be prepared to take the heat, instead of cowering in your close-minded corner & throwing names at the first sign of attack or disagreement with your little oPiNiOnS.

              Don’t care, then don’t even bother responding with any of your ignorant brainless vomit.

              End of conversation.

            4. LAPhil Avatar
              LAPhil
              Hide

              You’re right. You’re blocked, asshole. And before I go I just want to say your name is totally appropriate to you.

            5. FireBreathingLunatic Avatar
              FireBreathingLunatic
              Hide

              Likewise with you, brainless asshole.

            6. LAPhil Avatar
              LAPhil
              Hide

              Crawl back under your rock and don’t come out again, douchebag.

        2. Oriza Triznyák Avatar
          Oriza Triznyák
          Hide

          Given the fact that the Earth cannot even handle the current population where we use up the earth’s resources for the given year in august, sure babysitting Africa and cheering its population boom is the best we can do.

      2. Daryl Wathen Avatar
        Daryl Wathen
        Hide

        Actually, the global population is not accelerating at an alarming rate. We have reached peak children already, it won’t be long before we reach peak total population too. https://www.gapminder.org/news/world-peak-number-of-children-is-now/

    3. saymwah Avatar
      saymwah
      Hide

      Why?

      1. RichmondBread Avatar
        RichmondBread
        Hide

        Because we are decline. We need more White babies.

        1. Shawn Pitman Avatar
          Shawn Pitman
          Hide

          Not if they turn out as stupid as you. If they’re as dumb as you, we definitely don’t need anymore. “we are decline” my god, a toddler can speak more coherently than you.

    4. George Avatar
      George
      Hide

      56 downvote ?
      LOLOLOLOLOLOLO
      :DDD
      :DDD

      1. RichmondBread Avatar
        RichmondBread
        Hide

        Yep. 56 snowflakes who can’t handle the truth.

    5. Shawn Pitman Avatar
      Shawn Pitman
      Hide

      Waste of fucking oxygen racist. Go end your pathetic existence. Skin colour doesn’t matter one little bit, except to fuck-knuckles like you, because you’re afraid of everything because you’re a stupid, useless, cowardly bitch.

  79. Nick Wsixty Avatar
    Nick Wsixty
    Hide

    I tell my kids science was a lot easier for me because there was only 20 elements in the Periodic Table

    1. Squire Western Avatar
      Squire Western
      Hide

      I had 4. Earth, air, fire, water.????

      1. LeDayz Avatar
        LeDayz
        Hide

        I thought you were going to go really old school with Earth, Wind, and Fire lol

      2. Bigg Chungus Avatar
        Bigg Chungus
        Hide

        …fucking magnets, how do they work?!?

        1. Anthony Churko Avatar
          Anthony Churko
          Hide

          As a grade 7 teacher, I have to teach about magnets at least once a year…and I still don’t have a damn clue. Ditto microwaves. The world is magic.

  80. […] out Tim Urban’s short post on Wait But Why about 2020 for some more of this kind of perspective in the kind of fantastic diagram he does so well – […]

  81. […] Wait But Why provided some perspective on what it means to be living in 2020. […]

  82. maverick909 Avatar
    maverick909
    Hide

    I like to tell young people that when I was born (1957) the USA only had 48 states. My 97 year old mother-in-law laughs when I tell her that she is literally older than sliced bread. She was in First Grade when sliced bread was packaged and sold commercially for the first time in1928.
    😉

  83. RandomWords Avatar
    RandomWords
    Hide

    “Also, remember when Jurassic Park, The Lion King and Forrest Gump came out in theaters? Closer to the moon landing than today.”

    Also interesting to note that the film Apollo 13 is exactly as old as the event was when the film came out.

  84. […] In case you wanted to start the year in an existential crisis: Wait But Why lays out our place in history and relative proximity to other historic events! […]

  85. […] of which, I came across this article, which I suggest you go and read in its entirety if you really want your mind blown, but here is a […]

  86. Giin Avatar
    Giin
    Hide

    ? Why wouldn’t we be able to refer to the decade we were in? First came the naughts, then the tens (or teens, if you prefer).

    1. Dano Avatar
      Dano
      Hide

      It’s the rhyme and uniformity aspect, they mean. I think “the naughties” works very well but if you follow that up in the same sentence with “the tennies” or “the teenies” you are going on a list.

  87. […] out (of course) that it was.  The first ‘factoid’ in particular just seems incredible to me. It’s 2020 and you’re in the future [Wait But Why 3 min read – plus extra time for […]

  88. Paul Karsh Avatar
    Paul Karsh
    Hide

    I don’t know if anyone has mentioned this, but technically we are still in the decade off the teens! Technically, the 20’s begin with the year 2021. The new decades begin with the year 1 of the decade.

    1. Bret M Avatar
      Bret M
      Hide

      That’s not right. For example, would you consider a baby born in 1990 an “80s baby?” Would you call the year 2000 part of the “1900s?” Dates usually begin on year 0 and end on the last day of year 9.

      1. Jeremy A Avatar
        Jeremy A
        Hide

        Except the first century AD is 1 to 100, which means the second is 101 to 200, so on and so forth.

        The first decade in the first century is 1 to 10, not 0 to 9 because there is no year 0.

        1. Rich Aitken Avatar
          Rich Aitken
          Hide

          AD1 indeed exists. but we have standards for years. However, there IS a year 0 as stipulated in ISO 8601:2004

          BC1 is laid out as year 0. Decades run 00 to 09.

      2. Locutus Avatar
        Locutus
        Hide

        This is the same stupid argument that frustrated people who know how to count when the year 2000 rolled around. You don’t count anything beginning with zero, including years. The first ten years in the Current Era (or Anno Domini, if you’re old school school) were the years 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9 and 10. Subsequent decades, centuries, etc. follow on from that.There is no such thing as year 0, unless you are a disciple of Pol Pot.

        On the other hand, you can call any ten years a decade, if you want. The decade beginning on 1 February 1932 and ending on 31 January 1933 is a personal fave. The years 2020 to 2029 will be called the Twenties by anybody who wants to call them that and they all include the word twenty so what the hey. Almost nobody refers to the years 2010 to 2019 as the tens because it makes no sense to do so and the years 2000 to 2009 are definitely not referred to as the zeros, at least by anybody rational. The convention of calling ten year spans beginning with twenty, thirty etc. the Twenties, Thirties, etc. is fine, as long as you want a convention that only works 80 percent of the time.

    2. ThePeoplesDefender1776 Avatar
      ThePeoplesDefender1776
      Hide

      Correct. I wonder why you got down-votes?

    3. Giin Avatar
      Giin
      Hide

      What in the world are you smoking, lol? 20 isn’t a teen, it’s literally the first 20…

    4. Devon Powell Avatar
      Devon Powell
      Hide

      figured out here: https://xkcd.com/2249/

    5. Rich Kretzer Avatar
      Rich Kretzer
      Hide

      Math dork.

    6. Shawn Pitman Avatar
      Shawn Pitman
      Hide

      Don’t bother trying to educate people my man. As you can see, the ignorant halfwits of the world will simply berate you and tell you that you’re wrong, when they’re simply too stupid to have looked into the topic AT ALL. Also ignore the haters replying to you, they’re just ignorant nobodies that are going nowhere in life.

      1. talkingpointsmemo-bab4ed1c75a1357bcc8ffcf4d014c0a7 Avatar
        talkingpointsmemo-bab4ed1c75a1357bcc8ffcf4d014c0a7
        Hide

        You seem very angery. Why are you so angery?

        1. Shawn Pitman Avatar
          Shawn Pitman
          Hide

          Because idiots like you are far too common in the world. Funny how you tell people in your other replies to go learn spelling and word choice, yet you’re too stupid to spell “angry”. Go back to grade 1, you complete waste of oxygen.

          1. jDarJul Avatar
            jDarJul
            Hide

            Don’t be angery bro :S

        2. Shawn Pitman Avatar
          Shawn Pitman
          Hide

          Awh, disliking my reply and then not replying yourself. What’s the matter, moron? Too ashamed to comment after you’ve made such a simple spelling error after having been a twat about other people’s spelling? Hypocrites like you need to have your pathetic existences ended, you shit stains on society.

          1. Kristen InaTavia Solindas Avatar
            Kristen InaTavia Solindas
            Hide

            Why do you feel the need to be so vitriolic and divisive? What benefit does it give you?

            1. Shawn Pitman Avatar
              Shawn Pitman
              Hide

              The benefit of making hypocritical halfwits realize that they’re not as smart as they think they are, and make them think twice before posting their ignorance.
              Don’t like it? Too bad, crust cunt. Like I care what your stupid Boomer ass thinks anyways.

            2. Kristen InaTavia Solindas Avatar
              Kristen InaTavia Solindas
              Hide

              Classy.

              1st, I don’t believe I have said anything that provokes that sort of rude response, and your name-calling degrades any points you may try to make. Education takes patience.
              2nd, I am part of GenX, so if you’d like to insult people for their ignorance, you might have a glimpse in the mirror.
              3rd, my original question still remains: What are you getting out of your vitriol towards others? Does it make you feel better? I’m asking genuinely, because I do not understand it.

            3. A nonny mouse Avatar
              A nonny mouse
              Hide

              Stop taking troll bait, it just perpetuates more trolling.

            4. Kristen InaTavia Solindas Avatar
              Kristen InaTavia Solindas
              Hide

              You’re right, of course. I just can’t understand what motivates people like that, and it frustrates my need to comprehend. I should know better.

            5. Pepe Calzaslargas Avatar
              Pepe Calzaslargas
              Hide

              Just laugh at the fact that someone bothers to coolly insult so sophisticatedly over the internet, or worse… that it might not be a troll and they might ACTUALLY be angry.

              Or should I say angery? lel

          2. Fighting Thunder Avatar
            Fighting Thunder
            Hide

            I don’t feel I know enough about this conundrum to actually say whether you’re right here, but…It’s a number. Chill out.
            I repeat: You are shouting at people over a *number!* Even I, the world’s most OCD grammar nutjob, am capable of simply making the correction and leaving—maybe leaving a link to a grammar-related site if they’re really convinced there’s no difference between “you’re” and “your.” But not you, apparently—no, you have to actually insult people on the internet over a fucking problem of semantics. And for what? What you *gain* out of your numerical superiority complex? Clearly you’re not actually doing this out of any good intentions—if you were, you would’ve just calmly explained why they were wrong and left it at that. Maybe dropped a link or whatever. But no, you choose to insult and ridicule the people you see as wrong. You wonder why people refuse to respect your teachings? Maybe it’s because you’re no better than the boomers—always demanding respect, and never giving it.
            I’d give you some respect myself, but it’s clear to me you wouldn’t return it even if I did. You’re just as much of a hypocrite as all the people here you’ve labeled as such.

            1. Michael Fitzgerald Avatar
              Michael Fitzgerald
              Hide

              I, being one of the last of the boomer years, take exception to “—always demanding respect, and never giving it”. I have never disrespected anyone who is not of my generation semply because they are younger.You really shouldn’t make broad assumptions about groups of people. It is ad slippery slope from there to prejudice and gross mischaracterizations of people who are actually relatively decent individuals.

          3. Mark Sobocienski Avatar
            Mark Sobocienski
            Hide

            Your response seems just a bit dramatic for the situation. Lol

        3. Squire Western Avatar
          Squire Western
          Hide

          What is ‘angery’?

        4. Pepe Calzaslargas Avatar
          Pepe Calzaslargas
          Hide

          Aaaw, the angery morons don’t get that young people nowadays intentionally misspell to convey silliness and playfulness and basically talk to someone like the baby they are… xD

      2. TheSixFinger Avatar
        TheSixFinger
        Hide

        OK boomer

        1. Shawn Pitman Avatar
          Shawn Pitman
          Hide

          Awh, did the autist really think calling me a boomer would work? Poor inbred waste of oxygen, it must be hard to be that stupid.

    7. Jeremy Russell Avatar
      Jeremy Russell
      Hide

      Its the 20’s, not “the 3rd decade.”

      You don’t say a thirty year-old is in their late 20’s.

    8. Brian in CT Avatar
      Brian in CT
      Hide

      True, but “Christian Years” (A.D.) were not invented until c. 525. Before then, most of civilized Europe used “Years after the founding of Rome” which had fallen in A.D. 476. So TECHNICALLY, not only is there no year 0, there were no years A.D. 1 thru 524 (or 525). If those years can be retro-named, why not the year zero? It would at least make the years we use now mathematically correct, with year 0 coming between 1 B.C. and A.D. 1.

      We might of had a year 0 if the monk who invented the B.C. years during the Dark Ages knew what a zero was. The church was still using Roman Numerals at the time.

    9. ThePeoplesDefender1776 Avatar
      ThePeoplesDefender1776
      Hide

      Wow! 37 down-votes for stating an obvious truth? And zero comments telling why. I’m beginning to think the votes are bots. They make no sense. Why would you vote against truth? Weird.

    10. alstin Avatar
      alstin
      Hide

      Yeahhhh except time didn’t start in the year 1

  89. Sweetbriar Avatar
    Sweetbriar
    Hide

    My grandparents married in 1922, at ages 26 and 28. I knew them well, can still hear the sound of their voices in my memory, would know the sound of my grandfather’s gait in the house, and wish they had lived long enough to welcome them into my own home. I’m not yet 60, but remember my Pop describing his grandparents, what beautiful blue eyes she had and how he had consulted his poppie for advice before he shipped off to WWI, seeing as he had fought in the Civil War. Are they really a long way off, or did they just fall behind a little ways out of our sight? Technology might be made up of years and decades, but humans are not. Not at all.

    1. maverick909 Avatar
      maverick909
      Hide

      I understand oh so well about what you’re saying. My grandfather was 14 years old when the Titanic sank. He lived long enough to be great-grandfather.

      My father-in-law sailed into Pearl Harbor on December 8th, 1941. He would have been in port the morning of the 7th but by the grace of God, his ship had to take a barge in tow the day before and it slowed them down.

      He saw the Kamikaze attacks on the US Navy at the battle of Okinawa in 1945. He also witnessed the first Hydrogen Bomb detonation at Eniwetok Atoll in 1952.

      The scene from the movie Blade Runner when Roy Batty is slowly dying. He recounts the amazing things he had seen in his life but compares those lost memories like “tears in the rain”. It really strikes a chord with me.

  90. bob.sacamento Avatar
    bob.sacamento
    Hide

    Generally, I like your work. But today, you suck. (I had noticed the Civil War WWII thing myself. The rest was just more depressing.)

    1. While I'm Here... Avatar
      While I’m Here…
      Hide

      (Happy New Year, Bob!)

      1. bob.sacamento Avatar
        bob.sacamento
        Hide

        What’s happy about it? Did you read this article!?!?! (Happy New Year to you as well. Back to the salt mines next week!) Thanks for checking in! 🙂

  91. Kathy Allison Avatar
    Kathy Allison
    Hide

    Stop it! I’m 67 and didn’t feel ancient ‘till I read this.

    1. Shawn Pitman Avatar
      Shawn Pitman
      Hide

      Okay boomer.

      1. Jason B Avatar
        Jason B
        Hide

        I’m probably a lot older than Shawn and I thought it was funny. Perfect timing, unlike when my kids use it.

  92. Kristen InaTavia Solindas Avatar
    Kristen InaTavia Solindas
    Hide

    My great grandfather was Kaiser Wilhelm II. He abdicated in 1918, 52 years before I was born. I will turn 50 this year, so my birth is almost halfway between his reign and today.

    That’s freaky.

  93. Charlie Ellis Avatar
    Charlie Ellis
    Hide

    Cleopatra is closer in time to the Moon landing than she was to the building of the pyramids.

    1. bob.sacamento Avatar
      bob.sacamento
      Hide

      Woolly mammoths were still alive when the pyramids were built, FWIW.

  94. J StarStar Avatar
    J StarStar
    Hide

    hey man comon leave me alone

  95. Bu  Buccaneer Avatar
    Hide

    A funny trivia:
    You could have relive 80’s by moving to e.g. Poland in 90’s. Commodore, ALF, Atari 2600 even (in the first years)… The whole set! 🙂 The only thing braking the spell was the 90’s dance and the news.

    1. TheWojtek Avatar
      TheWojtek
      Hide

      We’ve had a numerous Atari ST community back in the late ’80s in Poland, it was cutting edge of the technology back then and – as a country – we were merely a year, perhaps two, late, as private import of the latest stuff available in Germany or US thrived.

      1. Kristen InaTavia Solindas Avatar
        Kristen InaTavia Solindas
        Hide

        To be fair, the Atari ST series was in its prime in the ’80s. I bought my STe in 1987, and still have it in my basement. Those were wondrous, formative years for me.

  96. Bu  Buccaneer Avatar
    Hide

    “if you’re 60 or older, you were born closer to the 1800s than today.”
    1900s

    1. Angelo Schilling Avatar
      Angelo Schilling
      Hide

      1800s == 1800-1899

    2. Shawn Pitman Avatar
      Shawn Pitman
      Hide

      The 1900s is 1900-1999. Being 60 would mean they were born in the 1900s, not closer to them, you COMPLETE imbecile. Go back to grade 1, you’re clearly too stupid to have passed it.

      1. Kristen InaTavia Solindas Avatar
        Kristen InaTavia Solindas
        Hide

        Civility will give you a more attentive audience.

        1. Shawn Pitman Avatar
          Shawn Pitman
          Hide

          Will it? Then explain why these idiots have failed to learn things they were taught by a teacher who acted civil. Oh that’s right, because civility doesn’t matter, ignorant people are going to be ignorant and ignore facts no matter how nice you are when you tell them that they’re wrong.

          1. Kristen InaTavia Solindas Avatar
            Kristen InaTavia Solindas
            Hide

            My experiences dictate otherwise. I have never seen vitriol garner any better learning results than consideration.

      2. Jared Avatar
        Jared
        Hide

        Seems that you are in a rough time of your life. Don’t worry, it will get better. Maybe consider therapy if it’s an option. 🙂 Here’s hoping for a good 2020 to you.

  97. Fresh47 Avatar
    Fresh47
    Hide

    This is actually kind of depressing. The 90’s still seems like yesterday to me.

    1. Brim Stone Avatar
      Brim Stone
      Hide

      Sure. This is a normal psych phenomenon. Due to several factors probably, but primarily because the younger we are, the more notable experiences we have (because everything is new and stimulating) and the older we are generally the fewer we have. So the perception of time is that it moves faster the older one gets. This is one reason why it’s a good idea to try to keep having new and different experiences as one ages, learning new things, going different places, meeting different people. It slows time down! Or, at least the perception of time. And from the human perspective time is simply an experiential construct of our brains. The good news is, the older we get the better perspective we have on new things. So..if you’re getting older and life is not getting easier and more fun, you’re not doing it right!

    2. Christian Shelton Avatar
      Christian Shelton
      Hide

      Even though I didn’t exist yet, I feel you, but you’ve gone through more than me for sure. To think that in 2009 I was only 7 and a half and in the 2nd Grade, and I’m about to turn 18. I don’t know what to expect for the next ten years tbh… time passes by really fast and won’t slow down for the rest of us, so we have to make the best of life while we can.

      1. FireBreathingLunatic Avatar
        FireBreathingLunatic
        Hide

        Well aren’t you just a special little boy.

    3. maverick909 Avatar
      maverick909
      Hide

      If you think that is bad, I became a teenager the year the Beatles broke up!

  98. Sergio Bracali Avatar
    Sergio Bracali
    Hide

    Just a remark…
    How much an event looks far in the past to you also depends on how much the world changed in the meanwhile. This should be taken into account.

  99. kayumochi Avatar
    Hide

    I asked my grandmother, who was born in 1910, in the 1980’s if she recalled Civil War veterans (she lived in Georgia all her life) around when she was young. She paused for a second and said,”Yes, but nobody paid them any attention.”

    I can’t say I paid a lot of attention to my great-uncles sitting around on Thanksgiving talking about WWII …

    1. Jesska Avatar
      Jesska
      Hide

      I don’t know I was dying to hear the war stories when I was a kid. Or even just some navy or army story from my grandfather who served in 50s after the war. I would forget all my books and toys and just listen to him talk. And I would love to hear the same from my great-grandfather about ww2 but never talked about it, even though he lost an arm there.

    2. MelodyJ Avatar
      MelodyJ
      Hide

      I paid attention to my grandfather’s WWII stories. I’m so glad I did. But I’m kind of a history buff away.

  100. Cumulus Avatar
    Cumulus
    Hide

    “Chapter 10 of The Story of Us coming next week.”
    Press X to doubt.

  101. Miranda Pierpont Avatar
    Miranda Pierpont
    Hide

    You can butterfly time and put the needle down anywhere. What’s your point?

    1. Josh L. Avatar
      Josh L.
      Hide

      Um, you can complain on all the blog posts you want. Make a point maybe.

  102. […] as Kevin Arnold and Winnie Cooper, was set 20 years earlier, covering 1968 to 1973. As writer Tim Urban noted on the Wait But Why website, that might’ve seemed like a distant era at the time, but a series […]

  103. […] as Kevin Arnold and Winnie Cooper, was set 20 years earlier, covering 1968 to 1973. As writer Tim Urban noted on the Wait But Why website, that might’ve seemed like a distant era at the time, but a series […]

  104. Chris Hughes Avatar
    Chris Hughes
    Hide

    Tim…a somewhat depressing post for us older guys. When is the singularity again? 🙂

  105. Jeff Blanks Avatar
    Jeff Blanks
    Hide

    But it doesn’t really *feel* like The Future, because we don’t feel like “future people” and the world we’re building doesn’t feel like a “future world”. We’ve been living in the Neo-Traditional Era since about 1980, with the Postmodern Hip Consensus rolling right along with it. From another angle, we’ve been living with fairly-high-tech media for a long time, too–compare a well-produced 45-year-old record or movie with a 90-year-old record or movie. That helps make 1975 feel less remote to us than 1930 did in 1975.

    1. XVS650 Avatar
      XVS650
      Hide

      Where is my flying car?

      1. CubsWin16 Avatar
        CubsWin16
        Hide

        Ok, but your car will soon drive itself.

      2. Mike Perry Avatar
        Mike Perry
        Hide

        It’s beside my jet pack

      3. J A Avatar
        J A
        Hide

        I’m glad I DON’T have a flying car. Maybe it would be cool, but then reality hits. If I had a flying car, every other you-know-what currently on the road would have one, too. I have enough trouble dodging doofuses on the highway in two dimensions. If I had to do it in three dimensions, I’d call it quits.

        1. XVS650 Avatar
          XVS650
          Hide

          Cool story, bro…

  106. […] in the background of the series as contemporary touchstones. Meaning: it took place forever ago. EXCEPT, according to math, if The Wonder Years were made today, IT WOULD TAKE PLACE FROM 2000-2005. Excuse me as I take to my bed to die of old […]

  107. Barry Altshule Avatar
    Barry Altshule
    Hide

    Sometimes, the passage of time plays tricks on us in unsuspecting ways. The ever accelerating change of advance in the world is not as dramatic as you might think.
    Sputnik was launched in 1957. We landed men on the moon in 1969. How incredible that in just a 12 year period (a blink of an eye even by our mortal standards) so many amazing technological feats occurred in space exploration. Yet from 1969 to 2020, 51 years have passed and where are we? What happened? Shouldn’t we already be living on Mars, mining the asteroid belt, or on our way to a neighboring star in a generational ship?
    Commercial jet airlines became operational in the late 1950’s, and here we are in 2020, 70 plus years later and we are still flying in basically the same aircraft, albeit with less legroom. Buck Rogers would be embarrassed.

    1. Sing Along Avatar
      Sing Along
      Hide

      I think Sturgill Simpson may have just produced our anthem for this era and ongoing process we’re experiencing presently.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpSMoBp8awM

      I’m sorry to be that guy Barry, but If it hasn’t already dawned on us collectively that we’re circling the drain of a techocratic, orwellian dystopia I don’t know what kind of metaphorical ice bath is going to bring us to our senses. Forgive me for sounding paranoid but there is A LOT of evidence available to us suggesting that we’re simply being permitted to slave long hours in order to be allowed to buy technology with qualities that lend themselves towards creeping entrainment should we choose to even so much as entertain the idea.

      Do any of us honestly believe that our overlords aren’t completely rotted from corruption? Epstein anyone? Weapons of mass destruction anyone? Google implementing tighter controls for china to regulate it’s livestock, anyone?

      I’m gently suggesting we all familiarize ourselves with the phrases “Corporate Fascism”, “The deep state”, “Suppressed Technology”. I will take great comfort in being shown conclusively that I’m simply being unreasonably paranoid.

  108. roman1766 Avatar
    Hide

    In my early 50’s here. While it seems many postings feel there wasn’t much of a change in society since, say, the 1960’s I have to differ on that. Granted, the 60’s with the Cultural Revolution was huge, the shift from there pretty much not being ANY computers in daily life to them being in damn near everything (including your freaking doorbell and fridge) is REALLY big. I graduated from college in 1989 having only touched a computer a few times.

    My wife and I have discussed how our childhoods in the 60’s and 70’s was, in many ways, more like our parents in the 1940’s and 50’s than our kids are today. I grew up when the only computer in your house might’ve been a Matel handheld football game or Atari 2600 console. There were 3 TV stations outside of a local one and PBS and remember the national anthem being played before the broadcast signal went off the air until the morning. As a nation we were really just beginning the “corporatization” of retail business. Most stores were still local mom and pop places with the few big national chains like Sears, JC Pennys, 7-Eleven or some gas stations. These days, you can go from California, to the Midwest, to the South to the Northeast and damn-near every shopping center has an almost identical mix of stores.

    In short, there might’ve not been a BIG event like WWII outside of 9/11 (that was significant but didn’t truly impact everyone in the way WWII did – Pres Bush encouraged Americans to “keep shopping”), but there most certainly has been a massive shift in how we conduct our daily lives.

    1. Angela Avatar
      Angela
      Hide

      I find it strange you graduated from college in 1989 having only touched a computer a few times. I lived in very rural minnesota and we had computers in the classroom in the early 80s and worked on them every day. By the time I graduated in HS in 1990, almost everything was done on a computer.

      1. Andy, Bad Person Avatar
        Andy, Bad Person
        Hide

        This is patently false. While computers were certainly part of education as far back as the 80s, they were in no way the way “everything was done” in 1990. Hell, I graduated HS in 1999 and really only needed a computer to type my papers.

        1. Squire Western Avatar
          Squire Western
          Hide

          I graduated from university in 1983. I had heard about computers, but never seen one.

      2. kayumochi Avatar
        Hide

        I graduated from university in 1987 and had only touched a computer a few times. Right after graduation I went to work for an international corporation and we had no computers at our desks. The only computer I recall was used for data entry by a bulldog of a woman named Peggy.

    2. kayumochi Avatar
      Hide

      Interesting. I was born in 1964 and my parents’ childhoods seemed incomprehensible to me: a culturally isolated, segregated small town upbringing in Georgia with few luxuries including TV and air-conditioning while I was smoking weed at 15 years old at a school with people from various ethnic backgrounds and never knew what it was to be so hot at night sleep was impossible.. Yet, I see your point …

    3. Randolph Avatar
      Randolph
      Hide

      I was born in ’85 and my sister in ’91 and the difference between her and I is staggering. When I was young the internet still really wasn’t a thing. I typed a few papers on a typewriter in elementary school, with sources from encyclopedias. Even joining the work force was different, I have 2 years vested on pension where I work, just hit the tail end of that before they dropped the program. My sister being born in the 90’s always had computers and the internet. I don’t think my kids have ever seen a phone with a cord on it or physical buttons for that matter. A little while back we were walking around Best Buy and my middle son started jabbing his finger on a laptop screen. I guess they just don’t know if you don’t teach them, It’s a process.

    4. kayumochi Avatar
      Hide

      Coming back to this thread two years later 🙂 My father was born in 1937 and entered corporate America in 1959. I was born in 1964. The difference between my childhood and my father’s was huge: no TV, no AC, life was simply much harder because people didn’t have much. Yet when I entered the corporate world in 1987 it wasn’t THAT different from what my father experienced, both in content and form (like we discussed, computers were still quite new on the scene and also men still woreneckties in the office, etc). Compare that to corporate life today – a different world.

  109. RogerMKE Avatar
    RogerMKE
    Hide

    This post reminds me of how mind-bogglingly old the pyramids are. The Great Pyramid of Giza was completed around 2560 BC. That means that the birth of Christ is much closer to us in time than the construction of the Pyramids was to him. We will have to wait another 540 years before the birth of Christ is half way between us and the pyramids!

    GP……………………………………………………….JC…………………………………………US

    1. Andre Avatar
      Andre
      Hide

      As I rather to think: Cleopatra lived closer to buy an iPhone than to watch the pyramid to be built.

      Sorry if I stole this idea from someone.

    2. Jonathan Miller Avatar
      Jonathan Miller
      Hide

      kind of makes the idea of a savior ridiculous when you realize human culture predates him by thousands of years.

      1. kathleen_roan Avatar
        kathleen_roan
        Hide

        Also, not to put too fine a point on it, but https://www.newgrange.com/ is older than the Great Pyramid.

      2. Squire Western Avatar
        Squire Western
        Hide

        The belief is that those who were unlucky enough to be born before Christ are currently located in the first circle of hell. See Dante’s Divine Comedy for further details.

        1. Andy, Bad Person Avatar
          Andy, Bad Person
          Hide

          Dante’s Divine Comedy is not an accurate depiction of Christian doctrine regarding the salvation of those who came before Christ.

          1. Squire Western Avatar
            Squire Western
            Hide

            No? I think it is fair to say that, though embellished, he was firmly in line with Catholic doctrine. Those who chose to contradict the magisterium of the Church tended to be dealt with rather harshly in those days.

  110. Jesska Avatar
    Jesska
    Hide

    I think Tim touched up this before, but basically rate of change is a little wild, fluctuate wildly depending on what you’re looking at.
    Like PC progress in 90s and early 2000s was absolutely insane for computers and video games in particular.

    For example Pentium 66 from 1993 was at least 100 times slower than Pentium 4 3.2 Ghz from 2003!
    But 7700k from 2017 was only about twice as fast as Core 2 Extreme QX9650 from 2007.
    Basically rate of progress for CPU’s slowed down a 100 times in 2010s compared to 90s

    Or games:
    A game from 1994 would look hopelessly outdated compared to a game from 1999 (Doom2 vs Quake3/Counter Strike) or like Gothic from 2001 vs Oblivion 2006. The difference was night and day, so much so that older game would seem unplayable like you would have to go from 100fps 800×600 beautifull detailed 3D world to a primitive 2.5D 30fps 320×200 kinda visuals in just 5 years.

    But now you would struggle to see the difference between game like Alien Isolation from 2014 vs Metro Exodus from 2019. Both of these feel almost equally modern to me, you play them with roughly same level of detail, same resolution, they both feel impressive graphically today. But you could NEVER say the same about any game from 90s or early 2000s.

    Or cars. Cars today haven really changed much visually in 20 years, but cars from 70s were wildly different from 90s and cars from 70s even more so vs 50s

    1. Angela Avatar
      Angela
      Hide

      Cars haven’t changed much? My dashboard is a screen and no gear shifter, just buttons.

      1. Jonathan Miller Avatar
        Jonathan Miller
        Hide

        Cars visually haven’t changed much in 30 years. I can drive my 1988 and it looks almost like a modern car. Digital dash has been around since the 80s and push button transmission even longer since the 50s.

      2. Jesska Avatar
        Jesska
        Hide

        Compare Ford escort from early 80-90s vs Ford Focus 1999 and then look at Ford focus vs something modern like Civic.

        Sure 2019 Civic looks great, maybe a little better than 1999 focus, but 1999 Ford focus looks significantly better than Ford escort from 80s

        1. Shawn Pitman Avatar
          Shawn Pitman
          Hide

          Okay…. but what about the shit that actually makes it run? Only twits like you think the whole of the car is simply how it looks. The actual mechanical parts and the systems that make your car run today are FAR different than the systems from the 80’s. Hence why a mechanic who’s only ever worked on old cars WILL break a new car if they try and fix it.

          1. freakneck Avatar
            freakneck
            Hide

            What makes it run? Gasoline. And no, they’re not THAT different. An ICE, is an ICE. They still have crankshafts, camshafts, intake and exhaust manifolds, spark plugs, etc…. Automatic transmissions are still hydraulic drive, and standards still have a clutch. There’s still liquid cooling, a radiator, A/C condenser, alternator, etc. Still hydraulic braking systems, etc. Someone who’s only worked on old cars won’t “break” a new car…they just won’t be able to fix it…engine wise anyway.

      3. Squire Western Avatar
        Squire Western
        Hide

        I think cars are just on the cusp of dramatic change now, as they enter the electrical age. My car, new a few months ago, is not significantly different to the ones my father used to drive when I was a child in the 60’s-70’s. Steering wheel, clutch, foot-brake, hand-brake, gear-stick and indicators; If he had stepped out of his 1960’s Ford and got into it he would have been able to drive it without the need for any explanations, though the Satnav would have been a source of amazement.

        1. Angelo Schilling Avatar
          Angelo Schilling
          Hide

          if you pull the 1960 Ford and your car apart, you’d realize how drastically different they are. Wiring systems and stuff like the ignition systems and traction control have changed them so much, it’s not even comparable. The user interface was kept the same for ease of use(and will continue to be the same for the foreseeable future), but make no mistake; cars are *radically* different from 60 years ago.

          1. Squire Western Avatar
            Squire Western
            Hide

            Yes, I don’t dispute that, but as far as driving the thing is concerned they are almost identical. What goes on under the bonnet is of little concern to me, so long as it works.

        2. Shawn Pitman Avatar
          Shawn Pitman
          Hide

          This comment shows exactly how ignorant you are. Your 2019 car is FAR different than your fathers 60’s-70’s car. I dare you to ask him to fix it the same way he did his cars, and see how impossible it is and how he just FCKED your car up, yet they’re similar? HAH, yea they’re about as similar as Mexico and Canada.

          1. Squire Western Avatar
            Squire Western
            Hide

            Dad would not have had a clue under the bonnet (or hood as you chaps call it), but then neither do I. Since he died 20 years ago I am not able to verify this for you, sadly. My car goes to a garage for servicing like most people’s. As far as driving the thing goes, though, there has been very little change since the late ‘60’s as I pointed out.
            Are you what is known as a ‘hill-billy’ or a ‘redneck’ by any chance? One reads about such chaps, but, being English, I have never been entirely convinced they were not fictional.

    2. CubsWin16 Avatar
      CubsWin16
      Hide

      Aesthetically cars might not be changing, but technically they are. Lane warning, parking assist and back up cameras are all recent innovations and soon enough they’ll just drive themselves.

      1. Jesska Avatar
        Jesska
        Hide

        I think fuel economy, engine power and computerization did improve quite a bit in yeah. For technical capability of cars I would say this: car improved at a dramatic pace from 1920-1970, gradually slowing down until 1970s. Then it was really slow for like 15 years, like cars from 60s were insane compared to 50s and before. But cars from 70s barely improved mechanically. Same with 80s. But in 90s and 2000s they started improving again. And in 2010s we got tesla’s which feel like it’s 10-20 years into future when you’re driving it.

    3. Randolph Avatar
      Randolph
      Hide

      I don’t agree about computer technology or video games. CPU’s now have more cores, even if the frequency hasn’t gotten much faster; and also SSD’s which are a giant upgrade. Games have gotten MUCH bigger. Those games in 2014 fit on a DVD; 4-8GB. Textures today are so much more detailed with AAA titles well over 50GB, with GPU’s burning through a substantial amount of electricity to render. Ray tracing is supposed to be the next big thing, we will see.

      But as far as cars go, my dad would always say the same thing about how all cars look the same now. I kind of always though it was because once CAD/CAM software became available the most aerodynamic shape pretty much took over the auto industry, starting with molded headlights. If I am wrong about this please let me know, I’m always down to learn something new.

      1. Jesska Avatar
        Jesska
        Hide

        Well think of it like this: it’s VERY noticable when you go from 100 polygon count a model to a 1000. It’s still noticeable, but not as much when you go from 1000 triangles to 10000 per model.
        But when you go from 10000 to 100000 it’s barely noticeable.

        About CPU – look it up for yourself if you don’t believe me. Compare performance of top consumer CPU’s from 90s era, then 2000s, then 2010s. IIRC too consumer CPU i7-something from Intel from 2009 had 4 cores and was 1.7 times slower than i7 7700k from 2017.
        In nineties that would have happened in a single year, but it took 8years 2009-2017

        Yes now with Ryzen 3rd gen we’re back on track with 16 cores consumer CPU with very powerful cores. But rate of Improvement before ryzen was undeniably dozens of times slower than in 90s

  111. Stefan Stackhouse Avatar
    Stefan Stackhouse
    Hide

    At the time, the 1920s were commonly referred to as “The New Era.” The “Roaring Twenties” was applied a little later, when in contrast to the Great Depression years it looked more obviously as a time of excess.

  112. TheRadicalModerate Avatar

    “The future is already here–it’s just not very evenly distributed.”
    –William Gibson

  113. Mark Avatar
    Mark
    Hide

    Here’s another curious example.

    The last sighting of Halley’s Comet from earth was in 1986.

    We’ve been waiting longer for the next sighting of Halley’s Comet (now reaching 34 years) than the length of time between the last sighting and Bill Haley & His Comets’ achievement of having the first rock-and-roll No 1, Rock Around the Clock, in 1955.

  114. baldrick98007 Avatar
    baldrick98007
    Hide

    After 20 years of not being able to refer to the decade we’re in .. – I guess that you don’t live in the UK, otherwise you would have been in the noughties until 2010.

    1. TheRadicalModerate Avatar

      The noughties is OK, but I’ve always lobbied for “the oh-oh’s” (pronounced “uh-ohs”). It seems to capture what actually happened a lot better.

    2. MsMercury Avatar
      MsMercury
      Hide

      I thought the 00’s through 09 was referred to as the “aughts” or “aughties”.

      https://www.dictionary.com/browse/aught?s=t

      1. Jonathan Miller Avatar
        Jonathan Miller
        Hide

        There was no consistent reference to the decade of 2000-2009, or 2010 – 2019 in the US. People said the Millennium or 21st century or just stop referring to decades.

  115. James Mink Avatar
    James Mink
    Hide

    The wonder years deal killed me. But check this out:

    I remember in 1988 everyone making a big deal about how the Beatles Sgt. Pepper’s album had come out 20 years before (because the album features the lyric “It was 20 years ago today/Sgt. Pepper taught the band to play”). The year 1968 seemed lost in the mists of time to this 1970s child.

    But if we were doing that now, it’d probably be about one of these albums from the year 2000:

    Veni Vidi Vicious by the Hives
    Figure 8 by Elliott Smith
    The Marshall Mathers LP by Eminem
    De Stijl by the White Stripes
    Kid A by Radiohead

    1. Angelo Schilling Avatar
      Angelo Schilling
      Hide

      all of which were better then the Sgt. Pepper’s album 😀

    2. J A Avatar
      J A
      Hide

      A song written in 1968 referring to a fictional event happening 20 years earlier would have been referring to 1948. “Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band” would have been a “Big Band” from the 1940s, and I believe that era is what the Beatles were referring to. BTW, I recently played that album in its entirety for two of my grandchildren. I was 8 when it came out. One of the two is 8 now. That was a kind-of age-defining experience for me. And his comment when the album was done? “Do we HAVE to listen to any more of that music, Paa-Paw?!” Oh well.

  116. Jonathan Miller Avatar
    Jonathan Miller
    Hide

    Those mathematical analogies don’t exactly play out the way you expect. Today it is very common to walk into a store and hear 80s music playing. When I grew up in the 70s you would never hear 40s music playing in a mainstream store. Society and culture do not evolve at a linear rate. Music and television have leveled off and culture today is not very different from the 90s or the 2000s. Look at a 90s car, almost exactly like a car from today. No one in the 70s would have mistaken a 40s car for a current vehicle.

    The internet has changed everything. So has eBay. Any item from your past can be instantly recalled and even purchased on a whim. You might say the human race’s collective memory has been infinitely expanded. The Civil War felt so long ago in the 1940s because there wasn’t a thousand hours of HD video to watch on the subject. Even WWII has color movies you can watch. And there is more information about 9/11 than you would ever care to know. Those subjects can’t easily recede into history because they can always be recalled with infinite detail.

    1. BigAl1825 Avatar
      BigAl1825
      Hide

      And there is more misinformation about 9/11 than you would ever care to know.

      TIFIFY

      1. H Man Avatar
        H Man
        Hide

        Building 7

    2. Ken Cheng Avatar
      Ken Cheng
      Hide

      I know what you mean. I was born in 1972, and I felt that I saw culture, fashion, and technology evolve greatly until around the early 1990s, and then, from the mid-1990s onward, it’s been something of an extended Groundhog’s Day.

    3. Jesska Avatar
      Jesska
      Hide

      So if you would never hear 40s music in 70s what music did you hear in 70s? Was it 20-30s music or 50-60s music? I haven’t lived then so it’s wasn’t clear.

      1. Jonathan Miller Avatar
        Jonathan Miller
        Hide

        In the 70s your would hear mostly 70s music. Every once in a while you might hear “oldies” from the late 60s. But never would you ever hear music from the 40s played out in the general public back in the 70s.

        This had mostly to do with the fact that music was on records and most people didn’t own records from previous eras. Their parents might, but older records might not even be playable on the record players of the day. Now with the internet any song can be played on a whim, but beyond that the genres haven’t changed that much. Rap is still rap. Hip hop is still hip hop. Rock is still rock. Top 40 is still top 40. Music really hasn’t changed much in the last 30 years.

        1. Andy, Bad Person Avatar
          Andy, Bad Person
          Hide

          Agreed on that front. Also, “oldies” as a genre wasn’t really a thing until the Boomers came of age. Growing up in the 80s and 90s, I heard plenty of 50s and 60s music on the radio.

        2. Oriza Triznyák Avatar
          Oriza Triznyák
          Hide

          From the middle of 2010s I started to feel I don’t understand the current musical trends. I don’t even want to understand. I couldn’t care less about current trends of rap and hip-hop. It’s the anti-thesis of music to me.

      2. kayumochi Avatar
        Hide

        I can recall a local radio station in the 1980’s that played music my grandmother and her sisters loved: 1940’s hits, and pre-rock stuff, like Rosemary Clooney, The Andrews Sisters, “Drinkin’ rum and Coca-Cola …”

      3. Oriza Triznyák Avatar
        Oriza Triznyák
        Hide

        In the 40s people just did not listen as much music as today. It wasn’t such a center piece of the contemporary culture like it is today.

    4. Angela Avatar
      Angela
      Hide

      Cars haven’t changed much? My dashboard is a screen and no gear shifter, just buttons.

    5. TaumpyTearrs Avatar
      TaumpyTearrs
      Hide

      You are off by a generation, I think. Yes, many more older pieces of pop-culture are easily accessible today, but since you have to seek them out it is mostly older people looking for memories/nostalgia. The real crossover was in the 90s, thanks to the pre-internet cable boom. I was born in 1985, and I grew up in the 90s watching cartoons from across the whole 20th century, shows from the 50s-80s in syndication, and thanks to VH1 (and to a lesser extent Mtv), movie soundtracks/nostalgia releases, and various cassette/CD collections I was exposed to music from the 50s-90s.

      I think young people today have a much narrower (or at least more self-directed) window in to pop culture. They can choose what to stream from an incomprehensibly huge selection on Netflix (or Hulu or Prime, etc) or Youtube and beyond, whereas the generations before me had 3-4 TV channels and limited radio, and I eventually had 50-90 channels (much of it filled out with older programming bought on the cheap) and slightly less limited radio. Based purely on my own experiences and conversations with people, its much more likely for someone close to my age to have been exposed to shows 20-30 years before their childhood from the 60s-70s than it is for someone who grew up in the 00s or 10s to be familiar with pop-culture from the 80s or 90s.

      1. Jonathan Miller Avatar
        Jonathan Miller
        Hide

        I think we are saying the same thing.

        If you were born in 1985 you grew up in the 90s and 2000s . You are a millennial by definition. I’m talking about my generation born in the 60s grew up in the 70s and early 80s. We had 3 channels and as for music only what was played on the radio did we hear.
        If we wanted to see cartoons saturday morning for about 3 hours that was it. If you wanted to see Charlie Brown Christmas you had one opportunity per year that was it. We were spoon fed whatever was popular, we didn’t get to pick and choose the way later generations do.

  117. tomburg Avatar
    tomburg
    Hide

    My grandfather was born in 1899. My youngest son will be 88 in 2100. 4 generations – 4 centuries.

  118. Jetstream Avatar
    Jetstream
    Hide

    Dude. They never got the number twenty back from the Kaiser.

    This is the year Two Thousand Dickety.

    Now tie an onion to your belt, it’s the style.

  119. Joseph Taylor Avatar
    Joseph Taylor
    Hide

    I was born in 1959. My grandmother’s uncles and father fought in the civil war.

    1. gbd_628 Avatar
      gbd_628
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      Wow!!!

    2. Squire Western Avatar
      Squire Western
      Hide

      The civil war ended in 1646, so that is not possible. Poor old Charles I was executed in 1649.

      1. Angela Avatar
        Angela
        Hide

        1646? Someone fell asleep in history…

        1. Squire Western Avatar
          Squire Western
          Hide

          You’re American, I imagine? I was, perhaps rather too subtly, trying to point out that your civil war was not THE civil war, nor even the most significant; almost all countries which have been around for more than a couple of hundred years have had one.

          1. BarnZarn Avatar
            BarnZarn
            Hide

            I’m Canadian and the Civil war to me, is the American Civil war. Being pedantic isn’t necessary. This article is mainly about American culture and that comment refers to the article, so it’s obvious based on context that they are referring to the American Civil war.

          2. Joseph Taylor Avatar
            Joseph Taylor
            Hide

            Thanks Squire, but as this is an American Site by and large our references are to the American Civil War, or at least, my reference was. Small chip on the old English shoulder old man?

            1. Squire Western Avatar
              Squire Western
              Hide

              Not at all. When a country has a rather short history, events which for us would be mere episodes, must necessarily assume a larger stature I suppose.????

            2. TaumpyTearrs Avatar
              TaumpyTearrs
              Hide

              As an Englishman who eventually became an American to make life in the USA easier, I feel qualified to say you are being an irritating prick. You can tell I have fully adapted to life as an American, because otherwise I would have called you a stupid c*nt.

            3. Squire Western Avatar
              Squire Western
              Hide

              I accept your rationale for claiming to be an American. However you are being silly agreeing with ignorant, parochial ex-colonists about the significance of their civil war.

          3. Squire Western Avatar
            Squire Western
            Hide

            I suppose you could allow that with the Scottish War and the Battle of Worcester, the civil war lasted until 1651, but after Marston Moor (1644) and Naseby (1645) it was all over bar the shouting.

            1. Gherase Mielu Avatar
              Gherase Mielu
              Hide

              Oh no no no … you are all wrong… it was 1938 or so when El Generalissimo Francisco Franco beat the White Russians earlier in 1918 or so… oh wait, continental Europe doesn’t count, right? 😀

            2. Squire Western Avatar
              Squire Western
              Hide

              I fear your history is confused. Franco was not fighting ‘White Russians’, for goodness sake, he was fighting Spanish Communists.

            3. Gherase Mielu Avatar
              Gherase Mielu
              Hide

              Of course you are right.

              But can’t you see also the mixed dates 1938 and 1918? or the little grin 😀 at the end? didn’t that trigger your sarcasm detector?!?

  120. Cecil Bothwell Avatar
    Cecil Bothwell
    Hide

    Here’s a thought.
    https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/01/01/grim-new-definition-generation-x?utm_campaign=shareaholic&fbclid=IwAR2XUdBIooVQn2XxwoYCiCWg5QGXsB38330EQDb83slpLPXrMEUGkvXuRZ8

  121. Ekke Kok Avatar
    Ekke Kok
    Hide

    We watched White Christmas over the holidays. Stunned to realize that it was 23 years from that movie until 1977’s Star Wars but it’s been 42 years from A New Hope until The Rise of Skywalker.

  122. Lox Avatar
    Lox
    Hide

    I really envy my son, who is just a little younger than I was in 1990. Today there is less poverty, less armed conflict, less violent crime, and more prosperity around the world than ever before. He’ll get to see a world where where we no longer refer to “the world” any more. He’ll live to see humanity become a multi-planetary species. He’ll see advances in technology and knowledge that we can only imagine. Possibly, if scientists crack the problem of aging, which there is good reason to think they will, he’ll outlive me by centuries or Millennia. What a great time to be alive.

    1. Pratyush Vardhan Avatar
      Pratyush Vardhan
      Hide

      Wow, an optimistic person for a change

    2. Fraulein Gretel Avatar
      Fraulein Gretel
      Hide

      And yet the millennials (my kids) take it all for granted. They actually believe that things are worse than ever.

      1. Jeff Blanks Avatar
        Jeff Blanks
        Hide

        There are some BIG, BAD problems to tackle, in particular climate change and the skewing of wealth, and the political and cultural cock-ups that actually keep us from tackling those problems. And there are some problems–say, universal health care coverage–that should’ve been fixed long ago, but aren’t. Great things can happen–in fact, they need to happen–but they won’t unless we can fix these serious problems.

      2. Angela Avatar
        Angela
        Hide

        For them, it is.

      3. BigAl1825 Avatar
        BigAl1825
        Hide

        It’s Boomers who think things are worse than ever, not Millennials. Hence “MAGA.”

    3. BigAl1825 Avatar
      BigAl1825
      Hide

      He won’t see us become a multi-planetary species. The odds that humans are able to successfully colonize Mars, a desolate wasteland unlike any on earth, are exceedingly low. It’s science fiction, and very heavy on the fiction. We’re barely able to keep a permanent settlement in Antarctica – and our settlements there face constant challenges. And it’s a paradise compared to anywhere else in our solar system.

      Earth, however, is an actual paradise. While I generally agree with the positive aspects you note about society, it’s very clear that we are not taking care of the planet particularly well right now. Positive changes have been made in some countries, but most of those changes are really a result of shifting the environmental destruction elsewhere. At present it’s not clear that we’re going to be able to manage a single planet with this kind of society, let alone a planet with an environment that we did not evolve to live in.

      1. Lox Avatar
        Lox
        Hide

        I guess we’ll see, or he will anyway. Any time I hear somebody confidently proclaim that something is impossible I think about a 1903 New York Times column, which proclaimed: “Hence, if it requires, say, a thousand years to fit for easy flight a bird which started with rudimentary wings, or ten thousand for one which started with no wings at all and had to sprout them ab initio, it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years–provided, of course, we can meanwhile eliminate such little drawbacks and embarrassments as the existing relation between weight and strength in inorganic materials.” The Wright Flyer took to the air two months later. Everything seems impossible until someone does it.

        1. Jesska Avatar
          Jesska
          Hide

          I can add you your story by quoting speech by Prof. Stuart Russel about nuclear fission:
          “According to the historian Richard Rhodes, Szilard had the idea for a neutron-induced chain reaction on September 12, 1933, while crossing the road next to Russell Square in London. The previous day, Ernest Rutherford, a world authority on radioactivity, had given a “warning…to those who seek a source of power in the transmutation of atoms – such expectations are the merest moonshine.”

          One day is all it took to go from impossible to an idea 🙂

          He does have a little bit of a point though. Colonizing other planets is an extremely difficult endeavor. We’ll probably sooner abandon our human form than colonize other planet as humans.

        2. BigAl1825 Avatar
          BigAl1825
          Hide

          Sure. And for every such anecdote there is an equal and opposite anecdote, like the idea that we’d all have flying cars by now. We don’t have flying cars for some very good reasons, all coming down to physics: power requirements, the danger of collisions, with infrastructure, other flyers, etc. Flight, by contrast, came down to harnessing a relatively efficient aspect of physics in lift. But it also requires a highly constructed and regulated environment to be accomplished safely. And, of course, still requires tons of energy. Some problems are relatively easy to solve once we figure out the physics. Others are harder. Colonizing another planet clearly ranks at one end of that spectrum.

          1. Kristen InaTavia Solindas Avatar
            Kristen InaTavia Solindas
            Hide

            I, for one, am happy we don’t have flying cars. People can barely drive on the ground.

          2. Lox Avatar
            Lox
            Hide

            Right. Solving the problem of flight, which stumped humans for the first 10,000 years of our civilization, and which even famous scientists in 1903 (e.g. Lord Kelvin) thought was couldn’t be done), that was “relatively easy.” It’s an anecdote, sure, but looking back to at least the industrial revolution people who bet on scientific and technological progress have been right a lot more often than the people who said the next thing was impossible. And we will have flying cars soon enough. See, e.g. https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/17/21024988/skyryse-autonomous-helicopter-technology-video-demo

            1. BigAl1825 Avatar
              BigAl1825
              Hide

              By “relatively easy” I mean that it’s clearly physically possible. Birds do it, for example, and bats, pterosaurs, etc. It’s evolved time and time again because it is relatively easy.

              As far as we know, no animal has ever evolved to escape earth’s gravity. Because that is, relatively, much, much harder. And that’s just one tiny step in the process of living in space.

  123. Jim Padian Avatar
    Jim Padian
    Hide

    When I was born in 1948 the world’s population was roughly 2.5 billion. In my lifetime (so far) it has more than tripled to over 7.7 billion. A person in 1948 contemplating the world with only a third of its then-current population would have been looking back unimaginably far to the mid-1700’s!

  124. Cecil Bothwell Avatar
    Cecil Bothwell
    Hide

    I’m not optimistic about the prospects for those born today. Climate change and population growth, driven by the industrialization mentioned in other comments here, are causing the second biggest crisis in human history. (The worst one was evidently when we were close to extinction way, way back.) Change is happening faster than the best models predicted, the food supply is threatened, wild fires ravage continents, the ocean is acidifying, tropical diseases are spreading pole-ward along with the pests that carry them. And while I (and many others) do what we can, even if we meet targets of fossil fuel reduction in 2030 or 2050, we’ve already baked in sweeping changes that will fundamentally undermine the possibility of higher life forms on this planet.

    1. Steve Sims Avatar
      Steve Sims
      Hide

      Dude! If that’s your uplifting message of hope and inspiration for the future… it needs work!

    2. Nate Barbettini Avatar

      Climate change will certainly be a big challenge to tackle in this century. Population growth is slowing, though. We’ll probably top out around ~10 billion: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/

    3. XVS650 Avatar
      XVS650
      Hide

      I figure that despite the doom and gloom forecasts, we goofy humans will fumble through it somehow.

      1. RogerMKE Avatar
        RogerMKE
        Hide

        Maybe. Then again, there is the Fermi Paradox. The answer to Fermi’s question, “where are they?” (referring to all the aliens) might be that as soon as a species reaches a certain level of technology, they tend to self-destruct.

    4. Mr J Avatar
      Mr J
      Hide

      You and Thomas Malthus would have made fine bedfellows.

      The resource-doom predictions of the Club of Rome are long in the past.
      Humans are healthier, richer, and have longer lives, than ever before.

      Those who forget the energy and creativeness of our species continue to shout gloom, but the outlook is actually hugely bright.

      1. Truth Avatar
        Truth
        Hide

        “Longer lives”- not really, the acient greeks lived to70+ too. It’s just the lower child mortality isn’t skewing the average the way it did.

        1. Mr J Avatar
          Mr J
          Hide

          Agree, and not forgetting far lower female mortality during birth.
          But average lifespans are much higher, even if potential longevity is not.

          1. firecooklmp Avatar
            firecooklmp
            Hide

            High rates of maternal death during childbirth is a myth. And when a woman did die in childbirth she might very well have already had 10, 15 or more children.

            1. Mr J Avatar
              Mr J
              Hide

              American Journal of Clinical Nutrition reckons 40-50 times higher rates than those of today, but you may have data that supercedes this.

  125. Eitan Avatar
    Eitan
    Hide

    Calculation error in guys of 35

    1985-30 = 1950
    Not 1940

    1. Rich Aitken Avatar
      Rich Aitken
      Hide

      end of the 40s…. not 1940. So 31st Dec 1949. 🙂

      1. tygrysek Avatar
        tygrysek
        Hide

        Actually, a decade is 10 years, not nine. The end of the 1940s was Dec 31, 1950. (you can check this by going back to the first counted decade, which went from 0 – 10. )

        1. Squire Western Avatar
          Squire Western
          Hide

          Oh dear……back to camp addemup for you.

        2. Rich Aitken Avatar
          Rich Aitken
          Hide

          that has nothing to do with my response!!I was referring to the comment in the article….

          but 0 to 10 would be 11 years……..

          1. tygrysek Avatar
            tygrysek
            Hide

            No, that would be idiotic! 0 -1 is one year. 1 – 2 is a second year. etc. and 9 – 10 is one year. There is no “0 – 0” year.

            1. Rich Aitken Avatar
              Rich Aitken
              Hide

              That doesn’t make sense bud!

              start 0 to end 0-> year 1 (ie Jan0 to end of Dec 0)
              start 1 to end 1 -> year 2

              start 9 to end 9 -> year 10

              “ah but theres no year zero” you say… correct. But there is a CONCEPT of a zero and a decade doesnt refer to years – only period of ten. We apply them to years as a convenience. The “decade” of the 1970s is 1970 …. to 1979. Not 1980. Its a maths term, not a grammar term.

            2. Rich Aitken Avatar
              Rich Aitken
              Hide

              99% of the world counts years cardinally – ie the labelled terms. Veyr few use the ordinal system starting as “1”. The concept of zero encompasses and works in mathematical systems

              The first year IS year 0 (it coincides with 1BC if you’re christian). The ISO committee set this out in ISO 8601:2004. Decades are defined as 00 to 09. It’s how all financial, computing and counting systems work.

      2. tygrysek Avatar
        tygrysek
        Hide

        a decade is 10 years, not nine.

    2. CutGrass! Avatar
      CutGrass!
      Hide

      The numbers the author uses are stretched to the extreme.

      For them to work, when the author says “40s”, what’s meant is 1949 in the last few days of the year.

      With each passing day, the author becomes “more” correct — at the moment, it’s bit of a stretch.

    3. David Avatar
      David
      Hide

      They say The end of the 1940s which was literally 1950.

  126. Lukas Houben Avatar
    Lukas Houben
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    I turned 30 two weeks ago and have lived in 5 different decades. #timecrimes

    1. Linda Finch Krukowski Avatar
      Linda Finch Krukowski
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      And two centuries and two millenia!

    2. AnnToozie Avatar
      AnnToozie
      Hide

      I’m 76 and have lived in nine decades, two centuries, and two millennia. I’m not even going to count the days. LOL

  127. UnapologeticFangirl Avatar
    UnapologeticFangirl
    Hide

    Zoomer here, born in 2000. Each year shift and decade shift is framed a little differently in my mind (and I’m willing to bet the minds of others my age) than many other commenters, it seems. Or maybe it’s not and I’m not unique at all, but wanted to share my 2 cents anyway.

    Being a millenium baby means my age coincides with the date – given a year I can easily name how old I was or will be. So the the 2020s as a concept never seemed futuristic to me, if that makes sense. Instead, I think about the ’20s as comprising my 20s, and all the stuff that comes with it. 2020 is the year I’m no longer a teenager. This decade, I’ll be expected to graduate college, get a real job, get married, etc. And then the 2030s seem scary not because of the prospect of expanded space travel or stronger AI but because I’m supposed to be a “real” settled adult by then, with like a house and kids. And so on…

    1. Max Lock Avatar
      Max Lock
      Hide

      Tell you what mate, you’re not “supposed to” be anything. Think free from others’ limitations, live free from cliches. Don’t let the society define your life style and your identity. Nothing will be any less fine.

    2. docfuturity Avatar
      docfuturity
      Hide

      Don’t listen to these “wait and see what life does for you” people. I did exactly that and now I’m approaching 50 and realized I could have benefited a lot more from a little planning and direction in life. Have a goal, is all I am saying….just make sure you are confident in what it is and that it works for you.

    3. Mingus Avatar
      Mingus
      Hide

      I’m 25 and looking at this new decade I’d guess there’s a 50/50 chance I will end up married and settled down by the end of it. If you’re even into settling down it’s perfectly fine to do it in your thirties as well.

    4. Daniel Canton Avatar
      Daniel Canton
      Hide

      Just try not to think in those terms so much, and let’s see what happens. Maybe you won’t get married until the late 30s. Maybe you’ll drop out and start working on something you cannot even think about now. Maybe you’ll live with your parents until the 40s. Maybe you’ll have a kid in a couple years in an unexpected manner and you’ll have to deal with it the best you can. I’m 35 and I jist know very few people whose life turned out simply as they expected, in a linear way. Stay alert, enjoy this time of your life. Good luck!

      1. UnapologeticFangirl Avatar
        UnapologeticFangirl
        Hide

        Thanks, that’s true, I shouldn’t make assumptions. Still, it’ll be a big decade for me and I’m definitely excited! But it’s just a strange feeling. Earlier today I got really weirded out thinking I was turning 20 soon because as a 17-19 yr old teen girl you’re always told that this moment of your life is the thinnest/prettiest/youngest you’ll ever be and you should treasure it but I feel like I just let it slip by? and if it’s all downhill from here for me then that’s really unfortunate lol.

        1. elebenty Avatar
          elebenty
          Hide

          I can say that in my 40s I felt stronger than I did in my 20s.

          One thing… you never lose the 12-15 year old you, just its body.

        2. starmartyr Avatar
          starmartyr
          Hide

          Dont ever think that! Some people have major glow-ups later in life and may be in the best shape or really grow into their looks, mature intelligently, etc. It’s never necessarily downhill and if the best years your life are your teenage years, you’re living wrong!

        3. Frenzie Avatar
          Frenzie
          Hide

          Not that I want to perpetuate such a bizarre way of thinking, but insofar as there’s any truth to that looks-wise you’d have to add at least a decade, probably more like two or three.

          (With some caveats about smoking, drinking, etc. which can really add up over the decades.)

          But in any case, what matters is your life and while bad things can happen, it’s likely to improve over the years, certainly compared to life as a teenager.

        4. Susan Lee Hall Avatar
          Susan Lee Hall
          Hide

          There’s not enough money on Earth to pay me to become a teenager again. Even if I could keep my “old” brain & experience, the ups & downs of a teen body simply wouldn’t be worth it. Now, 20s (with my current experience — I’d never say wisdom:-), THAT I might do!

        5. Angelo Schilling Avatar
          Angelo Schilling
          Hide

          the only people I know who consider their teens their best years are all douchebags who never grew up. I’m 31, and I’m the most fit I’ve ever been, making more money than I could’ve dreamed of in my teens, with a job I love; the best time is different for everyone, and if you’re still in your teens and wanting something more, you’ve got plenty of time and way more opportunities *ahead* of you than behind you.

    5. CutGrass! Avatar
      CutGrass!
      Hide

      Yep. You’re blessed with just latching yourself to the calendar. For the rest of us, if someone asks us what we were doing in 2013, we’re missing that simple reference that you have. Lucky you, in that respect!

    6. Angela Avatar
      Angela
      Hide

      You’re not supposed to do anything, live your own life the way you want and make no apologies. It’s how the hippies in the 60s would’ve wanted it.

    7. R Y A K E N Avatar
      R Y A K E N
      Hide

      Don’t get married it’s not what its cracked up to be….

      1. H Man Avatar
        H Man
        Hide

        Signing a contract with the government giving it power over your assets and offspring by threat of fine, guns, and cages. What could possible go wrong?

  128. pht Avatar
    pht
    Hide

    “most of them will live to see the 2100s” seems like a bit of a strech ? https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2017/07/Survival-Curves-UK.png

    Sure, a kid born *yesterday* has a solid chance of turning 80 on 2100-01-01, and be healthy enough to get the hell of a birthday party.

    (Although they’ll have to stand their firends mentioning it’s not ‘even really the start of the 22nd century, etc…’)

    For “most kids” living today… they’ll come close enough, baring some medical breakthrough that expands the life of *already living* people…

    But then again, we’re in *the future* now, so… who knows ?

    1. Frenzie Avatar
      Frenzie
      Hide

      Life expectancy has plateaued in Europe recently and already has in the US for a decade. But who knows, my 84-year-old dad grew up in a rather significantly more polluted country than I did…

      (On the flipside, Chernobyl blew up shortly after I was born.)

      1. Alex Makogon Avatar
        Alex Makogon
        Hide

        It’s also about genetics and stress (which essentially translates into hormonal balance) I believe. And while you definitely have some part of your dad’s genome (although no guarantee that this is the part that contributes to life expectancy the most), the stress levels could by drastically different.

        1. Frenzie Avatar
          Frenzie
          Hide

          I guess I wasn’t clear, but that’s exactly what I said? 😉 I didn’t live through a war with a famine and I didn’t grow up in (nearly as bad) pollution, so all of us born in the 1980s and beyond lived through rather significantly less stress.

      2. Jacob Jensen Avatar
        Jacob Jensen
        Hide

        Life expectancy has risen because of reduced child mortality and other diseases. How old you get if you survive till old age has barely changed

        1. Frenzie Avatar
          Frenzie
          Hide

          That’s true only to some extent. The fact that the Benelux went from a life expectancy of about 74 in ’74 to about 81.5 now is indeed primarily caused by people getting older, even if infant death has decreased slightly as well. Unless you meant to encapsulate that in “other diseases.” My point was basically about the risk factors for “other diseases.” People under 40, maybe 50, have simply had quite a lot less of those.

    2. Jesska Avatar
      Jesska
      Hide

      Well it’s one guess, here’s another: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/699a60b15f8f445a549ca04720a84c838d4fe6966f04e0ea77487e78d2cc0104.jpg

      Who knows. Many smart people called that rejuvenation therapies are just ~15-25 years away. Beyond that multiple different technologies could help with that, not just medical advances. Say medicine and genetics failed in prolonging human lifespan, but then we could have things like mind uploading, brain simulation, artificial neurons and brains, etc.

  129. designer fake Avatar
    designer fake
    Hide

    It’s interesting how most of the marks mentioned are USA-centered 🙂

    1. Bartek Kachniarz Avatar
      Bartek Kachniarz
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      100% right. I totally would like to see timelines like that for Poland. Say, January uprising instead of the US civil war. Solidarity in 1980, pope John Paul, the Stalinist era and so on. Like, we had 30 years of independence now. And before that it was just 20 years 1918-1939.

    2. Alex Makogon Avatar
      Alex Makogon
      Hide

      Well, the author is from US and majority of his audience is as well, so it’s hard to judge for that. Although I must admit, the post lost it’s charm a bit for me as a non-US native (“superbowl? is this the one for baseball?”)

      1. Jonathan Miller Avatar
        Jonathan Miller
        Hide

        The Superbowl is the championship for American Football. The playoffs culminate in a single game on a neutral field determined years in advance. So it’s a big deal.

        1. Kristen InaTavia Solindas Avatar
          Kristen InaTavia Solindas
          Hide

          It’s sportsball. It’s not a big deal to everyone.

          1. Jonathan Miller Avatar
            Jonathan Miller
            Hide

            Not a big deal to everyone, but in America it has the highest viewership of any event on television.

    3. ado11235 Avatar
      ado11235
      Hide

      well he’s american. It’s understandable.

  130. Dominik Avatar
    Dominik
    Hide

    I wonder how many people from the 1900s will see 2100s due to better health care and increasing life expectancy. In 2000-2010 it was uncommon to see people born before 1890 or even 1900, but maybe in 2100 the border will be set a bit further in the past.

  131. Flavio G Avatar
    Flavio G
    Hide

    Just adding another perspective: you’re referecing our view of time on events. If we are near or far away of such events, we’re young or old. But in the last 50 years we had so many “big events” in science, technology, politics, economics and social than most of the last 1000 years (i don’t know, might be wrong).If we consider that that accelerated progress will happen in the next 50 years again we could feel that many events still have to happen, so we are still really young… Or we are really old already and 2070 we would be really ancient. Hahaha

    1. Jesska Avatar
      Jesska
      Hide

      I feel like a lot of super awesome stuff happened like 100-50 years ago:
      – ford model T,
      – Telephone
      – Radio
      – TV, color TV
      – Jets, rockets
      – Computer
      – refrigerator, microwave
      – insane ICE engine progress
      etc.

      While last 50 years were mostly impressive because of last 20 years:
      – smartphone
      – internet
      – gig economy
      – self-driving cars
      – VR

      But what happened between 1970s and 2000? Feels like not nearly as much as in 1920-1970

      1. Jeremy Avatar
        Jeremy
        Hide

        I’d say the advent of personal computers in the 1980s (Apple, IBM), the development of cell phone infrastructure and the commercialization of the internet in the 90s are a pretty big deal. The internet was around well before 2000 and was even used in the military in the 80s. I had my first flip phone cell in 99 but those big ol’ brick phones were in use in the mid 90s.

  132. Martin Avatar
    Martin
    Hide

    My goddaughter is exactly fifty years younger than I am, to the month. When she was sixteen and was going into the sixth form (don’t know the US equivalent) I sent her, month-by-month, my diary entries for the two years from 1963 tom 1965 with an accompanying narrative. It came to eight volumes (plus a ninth for index) and some 2,000 pages. It was salutary to realise in that writing about 1963 for her, I would have been, at the same age, reading my godfather’s stories from 1913.

  133. Melayahm Avatar
    Melayahm
    Hide

    One little thing I’ve noticed about the decades. Of course youngsters have their own music, we all did, maybe we could even say that started with the 1920s. But when I was a kid (60s, 70s), I wouldn’t have been caught dead listening to my parents music, by my friends at least, and I certainly wouldn’t have dreamed of listening to my grandparents music – Vera Lynn, jazz, etc. Yet now, kids have so much access to sooo much music, that I have found more who like, say, Frank Sinatra, which is their equivalent of my Al Jolson. I find that an interesting little factoid.

    1. Bartek Kachniarz Avatar
      Bartek Kachniarz
      Hide

      I think this is more than just a factoid. It is a testimony to the scope of the revolution in music we had in the sixties. What new genres came after that? Punk and rap, mostly. In a way, we are still living in the sixties.

      1. Angelo Schilling Avatar
        Angelo Schilling
        Hide

        trying to call the modern incarnations of most genres the same ‘kind’ of music as they were in the 60s is a little disingenuous. Also, you forgot about EDM, which is one of the largest genres now.

    2. CutGrass! Avatar
      CutGrass!
      Hide

      We are all different. We all have different tastes. All kinds of people listened to their parent’s music while you weren’t. While going through high school in the generation of Billy Joel, Foreigner, Chicago, Genesis, Journey, Cheap Trick, and DEVO, I also enjoyed Ethel Merman, Al Jolson, the Andrew Sisters, and some (only some) Glenn Miller. If what you said were completely true, we wouldn’t have concerts where Mozart, Brahms, and Beethoven are played.

    3. Jonathan Miller Avatar
      Jonathan Miller
      Hide

      I made a similar comment. People today have instantaneous access to all the music ever recorded so it transcends generations.

  134. torotech Avatar
    torotech
    Hide

    Wow. A little older then you. So much of the first half of my life (~70’s, 80’s 90’s) I saw massive societal changes. Now that I think about it, it just feels like nothing big has happened in the last 20 years but also it feels like we’re on the verge of something huge w/ both AI and w/ space travel. We shall see!!!
    Speaking of generations, I’ve been told that I’m lucky because I grew up in the ‘pre-computer’ era where most tasks we’re performed without the need for a PC. But went to college and started the workforce in the early throes of the ‘computer era’ and so my sub generation and I are able to easily bridge the gap between those that can’t function without google and those that never think to just ask google before asking a dumb question.

  135. Jake Brower Avatar
    Jake Brower
    Hide

    But the weirdest thing about kids today: most of them will live to see the 2100s.

    If they don’t die from climate change first.

    1. quadrplax Avatar
      quadrplax
      Hide

      Climate change may be bad, but it’s not something that will single handedly cause the extinction of humanity

  136. CaPEITÃO América Avatar
    CaPEITÃO América
    Hide

    “Shit I am old”

    1. charles folger Avatar
      charles folger
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      Ohdearohdeaohdear me too.

  137. nonyabizzz Avatar
    nonyabizzz
    Hide

    earth is so screwed

    1. Kerstin Wadsten Avatar
      Kerstin Wadsten
      Hide

      Don’t worry about the Earth! It has been through a lot: ice ages, warming again, etc. It’ll still be here until the sun goes super-Nova (which i actually don’t think it can – it’s too small). What you should worry about are the present tenants of the Earth: us and all other life, we’ll be gone fairly soon if we don’t stop using fossil fuels.

      1. pikachu Avatar
        pikachu
        Hide

        yeah. i just wish we weren’t bringing so much down with us

    2. pikachu Avatar
      pikachu
      Hide

      yeah. i really wanted to have kids so i could be that embarrassing parent who gets wild to kanye the way my parents did to 80s music, but i don’t think it would be fair to bring a life into a world that doesn’t have much hope for a future. i’m sad.

  138. SanFrancisco Professor Avatar
    SanFrancisco Professor
    Hide

    Future Shock

    As a prof, I expect to get paid for writing smart stuff, but I love this website. Would that all my students were as intellectually inquisitive as the people who post here. Today’s topic, Future Shock, comes from a lecture on Jane Austen’s novels– because
    by the time the couples getting married in Jane Austen’s novels were middle aged, the world had changed faster than in any time in history.

    I’ll repeat that, it’s so unexpected, I know. A consensus of historians agree that:

    1. The greatest experience of future shock for human beings in history was not in your lifetimes, the switch to the internet and digital everything.

    2. It wasn’t even in the years when the application of electricity was creating the telephone, phonograph, motion picture. Not even when you throw in the airplane and the automobile.

    Historians agree the greatest change human beings have ever experienced came between 1810 and 1850. The change to machines, from no machines; to trains from horses; to instant electric telegraphs from, again, horses. And finally, the creation of the world’s first industrial city, London, a physical internet where an inventor and his backers can quickly obtain anything they need– that was the greatest shock in history to human life. It is routinely said that a child born in 1810 saw more change than any other before or since. The Industrial revolution was the greatest change in human life since we stopped being hunter-gatherers and settled down to farm, around 3100 BC.

    In Jane’s novels, mail travels by horse at about 9 miles per hour. News and information travel only as fast as a human being can. Forty years later, the telegraph will send information instantly. When you think about it, the telegraph is just email with a guy at each end writing the message down, instead of it popping up on a screen. By 1866, America, London and India are connected– are “online” together. Jane’s couples would have gone from getting messages on horseback to getting an email from America or a packet of another invention, photographs, delivered at railroad speed.

    For at the same time, the 9 mph horse also has been replaced by the railroad network, traveling at 100mph, faster than our own railroads. (More accidents too.) Steam powered busses trudge through London by the 1820s. The steam automobile/bus came before the railroad boom. The first idea the speculators had was the steam auto, not the train. They put rubber tires on a steam engine, and the passengers pulled in a coach behind it. An automobile, just a steam one. They were fast, too– nearly three times faster than a horse. Google them, there are many pictures, and in England, some museums with them.

    Why did they die out? Outside London the roads were lousy, and rails, it was discovered, minimized friction so much that the same engine that pulled one bus could pull an entire string of filled coaches. Enter the steam railroad engine. The steam autos would have survived, however, except that the railroad investors managed to get laws passed driving them out of business. The infamous “red flag” law, passed after the steam busses had worked for decades, said that a man had to walk in front of one, waving a red flag. The things worked. A steam car hit 124mph in 1906. Steam cars were made by the Stanley Company in America clear up to the 1924. There’s a video of Jay Leno driving one around LA.

    The first factories start mass production, which, combined with capitalists competing, lowers prices enormously. This is a revolution in human well-being. The middle class can afford luxuries even the rich couldn’t have before. Even the poor can buy meat. You know how the process works. You can walk into Costco and buy a flat screen TV for $500 that rich people paid $5000 for twenty years ago.

    All this production means jobs. Just as people jam into Silicon Valley now, peasants abandon the villages and flock to London to work in the factories. London is the first modern city.

    Victorianists remind us that none of Dickens’s characters had ever lived in a city like this before. Nobody had. It’s as different and new as a space station. For twenty years, before Paris joins it, around 1860, London is the first and only city of the Industrial Age, the first Silicon Valley hotbed of money men betting on new inventions– side by side with the pollution and griminess of 1920s Detroit. Great fortunes are being made by people like Scrooge; great inner city poverty is being endured by abandoned kids like Oliver Twist; and between the two extremes, there’s a rising, expanding middle class.

    For that reason it is all the more nostalgic and poignant to watch Jane Austen’s upper middle class people living at the very end of the pre-machine, pre-Modern era. She herself would have felt more at home in imperial Rome than in London forty years later.

    I must end with a plug for Jane Austen, since I seem to be relegating her to the past. Her subject has not dated. It isn’t sociology, it is psychology: the human mind in love, its mix of pride and prejudice, its battle between sense and sensibility, just to stick to the titles of two of her novels. She doesn’t have to write any sermons about feminism in her novels. From the start her readers– watching the powerful, intelligent heroines of her novels struggle with customs and law codes that treat them as children– automatically think, “That’s stupid. That has to change.”

    It didn’t go away overnight, that indifference to the woman’s lot. Fifty years ago, 1968, when I wrote my MA dissertation on Austen I was laughed at in meetings for calling myself an Austen expert. A man? Devoting his time to chick lit? But I laughed last. Austen is now accepted as one of the geniuses of English literature. I would say, as a novelist myself, and one who worked on James Joyce for years as well as on Austen, Jane Austen is better than Joyce. She is the best English novelist, period. Orwell comes second.

    1. TW Avatar
      TW
      Hide

      Samuel Clemens born 1835-1910 almost fits & his commentary was priceless.

    2. Jeannie Thompson Avatar
      Jeannie Thompson
      Hide

      Wow, this certainly turned my mind inside out or back instead of front. We always look to the next this or that, week, year or ‘the future’ and this was a fascinating and beautifully written look at the past. Sometimes, especially lately, my generation which is the same as yours, seems to be constantly apologising or justifying to the younger 1980’s plus that we did not destroy the planet or ignore the pollution wilfully. Life before the internet was a different place, if it wasn’t in a newspaper or on the news we didn’t hear about it. Foreign news was often a day or so late depending on that countries communications of even the most basic kind, such as a telephone/ telegram system. If you wanted in depth information on any subject you went to the library or looked it up in an encyclopaedia. I could go on and on about the massive changes in my lifetime but I will now look back further instead of always forward for comparisons. Thank you.

    3. Hen3ry Avatar
      Hen3ry
      Hide

      This set me thinking. If there was basically no oil/coal on the Earth, so the Industrial Revolution couldn’t happen, do you think humanity would find another way? Or would it get stuck in the 18th century?

      1. Pembroke Avatar
        Pembroke
        Hide

        All the industrial revolution, certainly in it’s earliest form did was to speed up processes. It was just faster to dig a ton of coal to smelt iron rather than spend days making the same amount of charcoal.

      2. Lexi Mize Avatar
        Lexi Mize
        Hide

        I’ve thought considerably about this topic. I posit that without NFE (nearly free energy) humanity would never become the advanced technological society it has become.
        The compounding of energy+resource_access+food+medicine=large population of combinatorial idea generating humans, a critical mass, is the only way to achieve what we enjoy today. I equate technological humanity to a mushroom bloom, without just the right environmental settings — nothing.

      3. Squire Western Avatar
        Squire Western
        Hide

        A very interesting conundrum.

      4. Harsha J Avatar
        Harsha J
        Hide

        I like to think that, yeah, humanity will find another way. We shouldn’t underestimate human ingenuity and creativity…it’ll probably take even longer, I don’t have a good guess on how long, but we will eventually find a way, provided that the environmential conditions dont suddenly become adverse.

    4. Stuart Avatar
      Stuart
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      I think you will find Manchester was the 1st Industrial City

      .

    5. Richard Kain Avatar
      Richard Kain
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      For those interested in more on this, a superb work covering the same idea is Paul Johnson’s Birth of the Modern (covering 1815-1830).

      I finally read this last year. Pace the theme of this post, it took me almost twice as many years to read this 1991 book than the period it covered!

    6. Squire Western Avatar
      Squire Western
      Hide

      I broadly agree until your final paragraph about Jane Austen. Better than Dickens, Fielding, Thackeray, Hardy? Surely not, since her scope is relatively restricted? Totally agree about the rate of technological change in her lifetime, though, which has struck me before, despite Kurzweill’s attempts to persuade me otherwise. It is also fair to point out that cities such as Birmingham and Manchester were hothouses of the industrial revolution too, and were at least as advanced as London in this regard.

    7. William Truderung Avatar
      William Truderung
      Hide

      I agree. Decades ago, for my own amusement I made a spreadsheet with the years of invention and widespread adoption of thousands of important devices and processes, going back to about 1000 AD, and used it to draft a chart showing the year-by-year percentage rates of change in technology. I found that the greatest rates of change happened during the early to mid nineteenth century, followed by the late nineteenth century, then the early twentieth century, then the mid twentieth century, and finally the late twentieth to early twenty-first century. In other words, the peak rate of change happened during the decades around 1830-1840, gradually slowing down (on a percentage basis) ever since, with some variation up and down on a scale of decades.

  139. Marcus Ten Low Avatar

    Who here knows what Ccexit is? (Not Brexit) #weareallwaitingtodie

  140. brnpttmn Avatar
    brnpttmn
    Hide

    The fictional date in which the That ’70s Show premiere takes places (5/17/1976) was 22 years 3 months 6 days before the date the That ’70s Show premiere aired (8/23/1998). 22 years 3 months 6 days after the date the That ’70s Show premiered will be November 28, 2020. Everyone get ready for That ’90s Show to premiere this fall.

    1. nonyabizzz Avatar
      nonyabizzz
      Hide

      OK, but ‘That 70s Show was really about the 90s, much like Happy Days was really about the 70s, even tho they wore the age appropriate clothes…

    2. torotech Avatar
      torotech
      Hide

      You could just re-title Seinfeld or Friends and nobody would know the difference.

    3. starmartyr Avatar
      starmartyr
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      Damn I remember watching the premier at exactly the right age for that show, 16. I’m olllldd

  141. J.D. Avatar
    J.D.
    Hide

    Good job, Mr Urban! I really enjoyed this, and I am commenting primarily because I have noted that all comments to this point are from the very young. I am 90, and have been a conservationist since I was a child in the 1930s, and I am VERY concerned about all your futures: Global warming and all the ancillary events that are creating havoc in our world, and the very real possibility that many of the children that you forecast to live to see 2100, may not!

    1. Angela Avatar
      Angela
      Hide

      You lived through a world war and the great depression, these kid will be fine.

  142. Kuba Urbański Avatar

    “As for you, if you’re 60 or older, you were born closer to the 1800s than today.” No, you were born closer to 1900s, not 1800s.

    1. Jarthelover Avatar
      Jarthelover
      Hide

      I think you mean closer to the 19th century than the 18th century. But it is correct to say “closer to the 1800s.”

    2. mouskatel Avatar
      mouskatel
      Hide

      Someone who’s 60 was born during the 1900s. The year of his birth is closer to the 1800s than today. Makes perfect sense.

    3. Abraham J. Palma López Avatar
      Abraham J. Palma López
      Hide

      He includes December 1899 in the 1800s. Dec1899 is closer for someone who was born in Jan 1970 than Feb 2020. The claim was not accurate. You have to be 60 and one month, or older.

      1. Jax Avatar
        Jax
        Hide

        His exact words were “if you’re 60 or older.” Someone who is 60 or older right now turned 60 in 2019 or earlier, which means they’d have to have been born in 1959 or earlier. So they were born less than 60 years from the 1800s and more than 60 years from Jan 1, 2020. So the statement is actually correct!

    4. Angela Avatar
      Angela
      Hide

      December 31, 1899 is the 1800’s

  143. Lance Walker Avatar
    Lance Walker
    Hide

    When I read this again tomorrow, it will be one day later than now. Which compared to yesterday, will be just as far away as it was then. I can’t believe it

  144. Barry Avatar
    Barry
    Hide

    One minor correction: 9/11 was 2001.

    1. Barry Avatar
      Barry
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      I lived in Brooklyn, within view of the towers. Will always remember.

    2. Paul Avatar
      Paul
      Hide

      On the line graph it is depicted as 2001. They used the generalization “about”. It was a bit confusing, though.

  145. gbd_628 Avatar
    gbd_628
    Hide

    As a zoomer, some of the ones here meant to seem surprising for one reason (“wow, was that really that long ago?”) seem surprising for a different reason (“wow, was that that recent?”). E.g. the breakup of the Soviet Union and Forrest Gump.

    1. happycoder17 Avatar
      happycoder17
      Hide

      Yeah, I was born in 95 and even to me the Soviet Union seems like ancient history. The breakup was such a significant historical moment that it’s really weird to think I was almost alive for it.

      (Although I suppose someone 10 years younger could say the same about 9/11…)

      1. Frenzie Avatar
        Frenzie
        Hide

        Eh, I was born while the Soviet Union was still around but it still seems like ancient history. I don’t really have political memories from before ~’95 besides some vague notions of Bush and Iraq. I mainly just remember Clinton & Yeltsin playing sax.

        WW2 feels much closer.

  146. M B Avatar
    M B
    Hide

    Just mentioned this morning how our 2yr old and new born nieces will(hopefully) live into the next century! Great perspective. Thank you!

  147. Milos Avatar
    Milos
    Hide

    Btw, the 2020s begin in 2021.

    1. Jax Avatar
      Jax
      Hide

      Technically true, but no one will talk about 2020 as part of the teens or 2030 as part of the 20s. Like how no one talks about something that happened in 2000 as part of the 90s.

      1. Lara Bee Avatar
        Lara Bee
        Hide

        Well said. I was born in 1990 and definitely think of myself as having been born in the ’90s, not the ’80s.

      2. A. Bowdoin Van Riper Avatar
        A. Bowdoin Van Riper
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        I think the argument can be made that it’s not technically true. Centuries are named ordinally (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.) but years are named cardinally: When the opening voiceover narration of a Saturday morning cartoon of my youth intoned “This is the year two-thousand-and-twenty. The place is the Challenger Seamount.” it was making a statement about count, not order.

        Decades are, by that logic, named cardinally as well: “The nineteen twenties” is casual shorthand for “the set of years whose thousands digit is 1, hundreds digit is 9, and tens digit is 2.” If you buy that argument, 1920 is part of the ’20s.

    2. quadrplax Avatar
      quadrplax
      Hide

      The 2020s began today. The 203rd decade, however, begins in 2021.

      1. Milos Avatar
        Milos
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        Well put. I have to agree with this.

    3. ddcsol Avatar
      ddcsol
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      I suggest you rethink that? Did the first day of your life begin at your birth or on your first birthday?

    4. Hen3ry Avatar
      Hen3ry
      Hide

      There’s a very long argument on Wikipedia about that.

    5. Paul Kent Avatar
      Paul Kent
      Hide

      No, actually, they don’t. https://xkcd.com/2249/

    6. Brian B. Avatar
      Brian B.
      Hide

      While technically correct, modern colloquialisms dictate that we reference the decade by use of the tens column of the year (1990’s, 2000’s, 2010’s, etc.). Most modern calendars consider the first year to be 1, this as opposed to birth years, which start at 0. Scientifically, the 2020’s begin in 2021, but conversationally the 2020’s begin in 2020.

      A similar argument is that a tomato can be both a fruit and a vegetable at the same time. Botanically, the Tomato is a fruit. In the culinary, tomato is used as a vegetable. Not withstanding is the US Supreme Court Case (Nix v. Hedden, 149 U.S. 304 [1893]) that declared tomatoes to be fruits.

  148. John Puhl Avatar
    John Puhl
    Hide

    I’ve been thinking about something similar recently. As a 56 year, I’ve been listening to rock music since the mid 70’s. In the early 80’s, the “oldies” stations played music from the 50’s and 60’s. Today, it’s not uncommon that you’d hear Pearl Jam on the oldies station or on the speaker system in your local supermarket! In other words, the oldies of today actually post-date the classic rock music of the 70’s that I like most! THAT makes me feel old.

    1. Kerr Avatar
      Kerr
      Hide

      In the 80’s every city of decent size had at least one radio station that played nothing but 60’s music. Today are those stations still playing music from the 60’s or does their definition of the oldies now included up to 80’s/90’s music?

    2. NorthForkClam Avatar
      NorthForkClam
      Hide

      Margo Timmins (Cowboy Junkies) was standing on line and saw their first album in the discount bin two years after release. “Time to cut a new album” was her thought. Time does compress from 500 years of Roman Empire to 60 years of American Century.

  149. Ken Sadeckas Avatar
    Ken Sadeckas
    Hide

    I found this very interesting but am frustrated because I do not know what AGI is, as in ‘I assume AGI will have figured out what to call the two decades between 2100 and 2120.” I am guessing it might have something to do with Augmented Intelligence, but cannot locate a definition. Please help. Thanks.

    1. Sam Randolph Avatar
      Sam Randolph
      Hide

      It stands for “Artificial General Intelligence.” See this post for more: https://wait-but-why-production.mystagingwebsite.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

      1. Ken Sadeckas Avatar
        Ken Sadeckas
        Hide

        Thanks. I used the WBW search tool but got too many hits for AGI, because it is contained in many words, so I thought I would be smart and put a space in front and behind the acronym. Hence, (AGI) was not found. I appreciate the help and the post.

    2. Don Reba Avatar
      Don Reba
      Hide

      Sorry, but not knowing that the American Geosciences Institute is the body tasked with figuring out decade denomination is simply inexcusable.

      1. Ken Sadeckas Avatar
        Ken Sadeckas
        Hide

        Mea Culpa. It should have been obvious. My ignorance knows no bounds. Thank you.

    3. arehart Avatar
      arehart
      Hide

      Artificial General Intelligence, i.e. godlike AI capable of doing essentially anything. Sentient, quasi-omnipotent artificial intelligence.

      1. TravisH44 Avatar
        TravisH44
        Hide

        Not quite, you’re referring to ASI, Aritficial Super Intelligence. AGI is supposed to have human-level capabilities.

      2. Ken Sadeckas Avatar
        Ken Sadeckas
        Hide

        Thanks so much. It makes sense, but I could not find it anywhere. Have a great new year

  150. Trido99 Avatar
    Trido99
    Hide

    I was recently thinking about something similar to this. I was born in 1981 so the gap between 1945 and 1981 is less than the gap between 1981 and today. It really blew my mind. And I was born just over 12 years after the moon landing. At my age, 12 years doesn’t really feel like a lot. This post puts it in even more context.

    1. Kev Hall Avatar
      Kev Hall
      Hide

      I was born in 83 and until reading your post have never quantified the idea of the moon landing as being only 14 years prior. The late 60s always felt to me about as foreign as the late 1800s. Weird.

      1. Roger87 Avatar
        Roger87
        Hide

        The cultural shift of the late 1960s was so vast that, looking back, it really does seem that, say, 1955 was closer socially and culturally to 1875 than to 1975. As an ’81 baby, family photos of the 1960s seemed totally alien to me even when looking at them in the early 90s, whereas when I now look at photos from the 80s, more distant than the 60s when I was a child, it all seems very recognizable with only superficial differences.

  151. Patrick van Beek Avatar
    Patrick van Beek
    Hide

    Once again, it’s such a great please to read that there’s someone else out there that thinks alike. I was once mesmerized by your article regarding the panick monkey. I don’t usually comment on articles, but you should know that these things make an impact on some people’s life. And I thank you for that. Keep up the good work, and have a great 2020

  152. Arlene Wang Avatar
    Arlene Wang
    Hide

    an interesting read from my generation z perspective. is it fair to say that this shock of feeling old amongst older generations is a relatively new phenomenon, considering the advance of technology and more and more significant world events? or has it always been like this in past centuries?

    1. Trido99 Avatar
      Trido99
      Hide

      I think events only feel more significant because of the connected world we live in. Outside of 9/11, I don’t think we’ve had anything as significant as the world wars, the Cuban Missile Crisis or moon landing in my life time.

      1. Joe Valimont Avatar
        Joe Valimont
        Hide

        I think that you missed the Fall of the Soviet Union, but other than that, I think that you’re right. The article was great though, inspired me to immediately write my nephew (From Gen X to Gen Z) and check up with his perspective on the state of the World.

        I think that there’s a good chance that we can avoid a major war for the next decade or two, from there, it’s the big technical revolutions that will likely cause upheaval, US Energy independence, the rise of renewable energy sources, electric cars and AI will all have huge impacts.

        Those big ones and if the 3rd World can avoid wars for a couple of decades, I think that they’ll rapidly close technical gaps with the 1st, and the pace of technological change will accelerate as more countries participate more fully in the global economy.

  153. Hen3ry Avatar
    Hen3ry
    Hide

    As a not-yet-adult, this new decade has struck me in a “this is the future!” way. It’s the first decade shift I can process. Like, I still consider 2020 the far future. Does this get weirder as you age? Do people in their forties now consider the 2000s a normal time? Hard to phrase this question.

    1. Trido99 Avatar
      Trido99
      Hide

      I remember the transitions into the 90s and 2000s felt like the herald of a huge technological jump. I’ve wondered if someone born in the 60s thought the same of the 80s or if it is a more modern phenomenon.

      I don’t feel the change of decade as much as I used to, just as birthdays start to become more of a number than they did when I was younger.

    2. Angie Penrose Avatar
      Angie Penrose
      Hide

      Re: 2020 feeling like the future, when I was a kid in the 70s, there was a Saturday morning cartoon called Sealab: 2020 that seemed like it was WAAAAAY in the future. [wry smile]

      I’m in my 50s, and the year 2000 still feels like the future to me, for a microsecond when I see it written or hear someone mention it. I know it was 20 years ago — almost a generation! — but I think we lay down our base-level ideas of when The Future is when we’re pretty young.

      1. Gherase Mielu Avatar
        Gherase Mielu
        Hide

        Yeah … and the events depicted in Ray Bradbury’s Martian Chronicles are now 20 years in the past, Susan Calvin just turned 38 and works for more than a decade at US Robots and Mechanical Men, while Seaquest has less than three years of submersion history today. 🙂

    3. Noah Lawes Avatar
      Noah Lawes
      Hide

      I think it gets a little less weird. I’m 27 now, and I have a very clear memory, from what must have been 2001 or 2002, of buying a book about the night sky which said on the cover “Up to date through 2010.” To my 9-year-old self, 2010 felt impossibly far in the future, maybe even weirder than 2050 feels to me now. Now 2010 feels pretty far in the past, but not crazy far. And it lost all of that futuristic feeling long ago. Quite a normal time.

    4. Ellen Avatar
      Ellen
      Hide

      What happens is the so important age differences of childhood/adolescence/young adulthood fade away in later adulthood, and as time passes, you gain more life experience. In other words, a 10 year old thinks 5 years is an enormous amount of time because it’s half of his/her life. But a 60 year old thinks 5 years is a relatively short amount of time; it’s such a small percentage of his/her life now. Also, speaking as a 76 year old, it is impossible at age 20 to have any concept of what age 40 or even 35 will be like, or how you will grow, develop, think and feel then. And our perception of time passes faster and faster as you age. It took forever for me to reach age 16 and get my driver’s license, but I became 76 in no time at all and sometimes wonder where the time went! I hope this gives you some insight and answers your question. It’s hard to do, but I would say to live each day as much as possible and enjoy where you are in life at the time. Don’t fret over unimportant things (traffic, waiting, idiot drivers, etc.) and be eternally grateful for your health. Laugh as much as you can. I didn’t understand the above at your age and don’t think people can, but try hard. Talk to older generations and really listen to what they say. People in their 20’s and late teens think they know everything, but you can save yourself a lot of pain if you listen hard to the voice of experience. Notice health–we take it so much for granted when we’re young, but not everybody stays healthy long into adulthood. Health enables you to soar. Older generations have been repeating this to the young probably since the first adolescent cave teen came of age, but most people don’t listen and have to learn the hard way. I hope I’ve answered your question or at least shed some light. You are at the cusp of your life–don’t waste the years! I consider the 2000’s very recent, and I can’t believe the 90’s were that long ago.

  154. Irina Logra Avatar
    Irina Logra
    Hide

    I’m 36 and now I feel really really old! If it is your gimmick to make me stop procrastinating, I think it worked!

    1. Ellen  Avatar
      Ellen
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      I love that you feel empowered to stop procrastination, but please please please do not think 36 is old!! Or 46. Or 56 or 66. You still have so much of your life ahead of you with all its joys and sorrows.

      1. Irina Logra Avatar
        Irina Logra
        Hide

        Thank you so much, Ellen, for reaching out and for comforting me. I really appreciate it! Honesty, I was being sarcastic 🙂 I’m not that old yet!

  155. Lexi Mize Avatar
    Lexi Mize
    Hide

    Just the right length for a post. Great thought experiments. An 80 year old in 2100 will most likely live until 2200. In fact there are people born today who may live to be 200, or more years old. Fascinating.

    1. Tim Urban Avatar
      Tim Urban
      Hide

      Nothing will be more annoying than if I’m in the last generation to die.

      1. Lexi Mize Avatar
        Lexi Mize
        Hide

        “Sorry, Mr. Urban, but had you just not eaten so many cheeseburgers, you would have lived another month to see the Never-Pill invented. Bad luck, that.”

      2. Lee Spaziano Avatar
        Lee Spaziano
        Hide

        Or the first generation not to die

      3. Ellen  Avatar
        Ellen
        Hide

        I’m with you, Tim! I had to laugh at your post!

      4. Stephanie Helder Avatar
        Stephanie Helder
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        Don’t worry – you won’t feel a thing :p

      5. Erik de Wilde Avatar
        Erik de Wilde
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        How old are you then Tim Urban?

  156. Dave Avatar
    Dave
    Hide

    This blew my mind. I remember when you did one of these when it turned 2015. I can’t believe it’s been 5 years since THEN.